First Republic Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction

Summary

FRCBDelisted Stock

0.31 0.06 16.22%

The Naive Prediction forecasted value of First Republic Bank on the next trading day is expected to be -0.8 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.16. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast First Republic's stock prices and determine the direction of First Republic Bank's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of First Republic's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check out Investing Opportunities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in main economic indicators.

A naive forecasting model for First Republic is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of First Republic Bank value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

More About Naive Prediction All Equity Analysis

First Republic Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of First Republic Bank on the next trading day is expected to be -0.8 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30, mean absolute percentage error of 0.18, and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.16.

Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First Republic's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

First Republic Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Republic pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Republic pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.

AIC	Akaike Information Criteria	116.4048
Bias	Arithmetic mean of the errors	None
MAD	Mean absolute deviation	0.2976
MAPE	Mean absolute percentage error	0.7514
SAE	Sum of the absolute errors	18.1561

This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of First Republic Bank. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict First Republic. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for First Republic

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Republic Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Republic's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.

First Republic Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with First Republic pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of First Republic could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing First Republic by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Old Dominion Freight Portillos Afya Park Hotels Resorts 51Talk Online Education Sweetgreen Shake Shack BJs Restaurants American Airlines Group Alcoa Corp Apple Inc Best Buy Co Citigroup SentinelOne CVS Health Corp

Risk & Return

Correlation

First Republic Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how First Republic pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading First Republic shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying First Republic pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify First Republic Bank entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

	Accumulation Distribution	0.32
	Daily Balance Of Power	(0.50)
	Rate Of Daily Change	0.84
	Day Median Price	0.31
	Day Typical Price	0.31
	Market Facilitation Index	0.12
	Price Action Indicator	(0.03)
	Period Momentum Indicator	(0.06)

First Republic Risk Indicators

The analysis of First Republic's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in First Republic's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting first pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.

	Mean Deviation	12.38
	Standard Deviation	20.7
	Variance	428.32

Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

RSI	Rush Street Interactive
OKTA	Okta Inc
BAC	Bank of America

Check out Investing Opportunities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in main economic indicators.

You can also try the Balance Of Power module to check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios.

Other Consideration for investing in First Pink Sheet

If you are still planning to invest in First Republic Bank check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the First Republic's history and understand the potential risks before investing.

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