H B Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| FUL Stock | USD 60.07 0.60 0.99% |
FUL Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although H B's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of H B's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of H B fundamentals over time.
As of now, the relative strength index (RSI) of H B's share price is approaching 48. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling H B, making its price go up or down. Momentum 48
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.245 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.5799 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.1151 | Wall Street Target Price 71.7143 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 1.2107 |
Using H B hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of H B Fuller from the perspective of H B response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards H B using H B's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards FUL using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of H B's stock price.
H B Short Interest
An investor who is long H B may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about H B and may potentially protect profits, hedge H B with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 58.4241 | Short Percent 0.0464 | Short Ratio 5.47 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.7 M | 50 Day MA 59.7678 |
FUL Relative Strength Index
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of H B Fuller on the next trading day is expected to be 59.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.89 and the sum of the absolute errors of 52.47.H B Fuller Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to H B's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in FUL. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding FUL can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around H B Fuller. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of H B's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about H B.
H B Implied Volatility | 0.68 |
H B's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of H B Fuller stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if H B's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that H B stock will not fluctuate a lot when H B's options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of H B Fuller on the next trading day is expected to be 59.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.89 and the sum of the absolute errors of 52.47. H B after-hype prediction price | USD 60.07 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of H B to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current FUL contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that H B Fuller will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0425% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With H B trading at USD 60.07, that is roughly USD 0.0255 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating H B's daily price movement you should consider acquiring H B Fuller options at the current volatility level of 0.68%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 FUL Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast H B's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in H B's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for H B stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current H B's open interest, investors have to compare it to H B's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of H B is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in FUL. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
H B Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine FUL price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for FUL using various technical indicators. When you analyze FUL charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
H B Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of H B Fuller on the next trading day is expected to be 59.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.89, mean absolute percentage error of 1.32, and the sum of the absolute errors of 52.47.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict FUL Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that H B's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
H B Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest H B | H B Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
H B Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting H B's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. H B's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 58.08 and 61.56, respectively. We have considered H B's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of H B stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent H B stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.104 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8894 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0149 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 52.4748 |
Predictive Modules for H B
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as H B Fuller. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of H B's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
H B After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of H B at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in H B or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of H B, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
H B Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting H B's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on H B's historical news coverage. H B's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 58.35 and 61.79, respectively. We have considered H B's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
H B is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of H B Fuller is based on 3 months time horizon.
H B Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as H B is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading H B backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with H B, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 1.74 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 4 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
60.07 | 60.07 | 0.00 |
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H B Hype Timeline
On the 26th of January H B Fuller is traded for 60.07. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. FUL is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on H B is about 234.19%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 60.08. About 100.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.63. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. H B Fuller has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.23. The entity last dividend was issued on the 5th of February 2026. The firm had 2:1 split on the 7th of August 2006. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 4 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of H B to cross-verify your projections.H B Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to H B's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict H B's future price movements. Getting to know how H B's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how H B may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AVNT | Avient Corp | 0.48 | 11 per month | 1.37 | 0.10 | 3.41 | (2.45) | 8.87 | |
| HWKN | Hawkins | (1.22) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.29 | (4.40) | 10.09 | |
| WDFC | WD 40 Company | 6.97 | 7 per month | 1.91 | 0.06 | 2.86 | (2.98) | 10.75 | |
| CBT | Cabot | (0.23) | 9 per month | 1.87 | 0.0003 | 3.72 | (2.71) | 8.68 | |
| PRM | Perimeter Solutions SA | (0.11) | 10 per month | 2.44 | 0.1 | 3.38 | (3.85) | 30.19 | |
| SXT | Sensient Technologies | (0.32) | 10 per month | 1.76 | (0.04) | 2.93 | (2.57) | 9.55 | |
| USLM | United States Lime | 1.03 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.08 | (3.63) | 8.80 | |
| OLN | Olin Corporation | 0.15 | 39 per month | 3.19 | 0.01 | 5.76 | (4.57) | 18.23 | |
| CENX | Century Aluminum | 0.73 | 8 per month | 4.02 | 0.13 | 6.70 | (6.55) | 27.76 | |
| SMG | Scotts Miracle Gro | (0.05) | 31 per month | 1.66 | 0.09 | 3.19 | (3.22) | 7.91 |
Other Forecasting Options for H B
For every potential investor in FUL, whether a beginner or expert, H B's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. FUL Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in FUL. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying H B's price trends.H B Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with H B stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of H B could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing H B by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
H B Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how H B stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading H B shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying H B stock market strength indicators, traders can identify H B Fuller entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
H B Risk Indicators
The analysis of H B's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in H B's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ful stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.29 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.53 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.74 | |||
| Variance | 3.02 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.66 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.34 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.51) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for H B
The number of cover stories for H B depends on current market conditions and H B's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that H B is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about H B's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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H B Short Properties
H B's future price predictability will typically decrease when H B's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of H B Fuller often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential H B's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. H B's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 55.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 107.2 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of H B to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.
Is Specialty Chemicals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of H B. If investors know FUL will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about H B listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.245 | Dividend Share 0.928 | Earnings Share 2.75 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.03) |
The market value of H B Fuller is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of FUL that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of H B's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is H B's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because H B's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect H B's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between H B's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if H B is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, H B's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.