Galp Energia Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| GALP Stock | EUR 17.01 0.02 0.12% |
Galp Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the value of rsi of Galp Energia's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Galp Energia hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Galp Energia SGPS from the perspective of Galp Energia response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Galp Energia SGPS on the next trading day is expected to be 17.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61 and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.98. Galp Energia after-hype prediction price | EUR 16.99 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Galp |
Galp Energia Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Galp price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Galp using various technical indicators. When you analyze Galp charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Galp Energia Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Galp Energia SGPS on the next trading day is expected to be 17.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61, mean absolute percentage error of 0.57, and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.98.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Galp Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Galp Energia's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Galp Energia Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Galp Energia | Galp Energia Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Galp Energia Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Galp Energia's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Galp Energia's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.60 and 20.39, respectively. We have considered Galp Energia's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Galp Energia stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Galp Energia stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.5475 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6062 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0382 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 36.9795 |
Predictive Modules for Galp Energia
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Galp Energia SGPS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Galp Energia After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Galp Energia at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Galp Energia or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Galp Energia, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Galp Energia Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Galp Energia's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Galp Energia's historical news coverage. Galp Energia's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 14.58 and 19.40, respectively. We have considered Galp Energia's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Galp Energia is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Galp Energia SGPS is based on 3 months time horizon.
Galp Energia Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Galp Energia is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Galp Energia backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Galp Energia, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 2.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
17.01 | 16.99 | 0.00 |
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Galp Energia Hype Timeline
Galp Energia SGPS is currently traded for 17.01on Euronext Lisbon of Portugal. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Galp is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on Galp Energia is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 17.01. About 45.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of Galp Energia was currently reported as 5.12. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.95. Galp Energia SGPS last dividend was issued on the 16th of September 2022. The entity had 1:0 split on the 11th of November 2024. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Galp Energia to cross-verify your projections.Galp Energia Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Galp Energia's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Galp Energia's future price movements. Getting to know how Galp Energia's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Galp Energia may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EDP | EDP Energias | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.09 | (0.03) | 2.04 | (1.85) | 8.35 | |
| SON | Sonae SGPS SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.31 | 0.31 | 2.07 | (0.70) | 4.79 | |
| BCP | Banco Comercial Portugues | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.02 | 0.16 | 2.56 | (2.30) | 6.40 | |
| NOS | NOS SGPS SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.33 | 0.24 | 2.22 | (1.18) | 4.56 | |
| ALTR | Altri SGPS SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 2.00 | (2.24) | 5.38 |
Other Forecasting Options for Galp Energia
For every potential investor in Galp, whether a beginner or expert, Galp Energia's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Galp Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Galp. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Galp Energia's price trends.Galp Energia Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Galp Energia stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Galp Energia could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Galp Energia by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Galp Energia Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Galp Energia stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Galp Energia shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Galp Energia stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Galp Energia SGPS entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 44541.92 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.0625 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 17.09 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 17.06 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.07) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.02 |
Galp Energia Risk Indicators
The analysis of Galp Energia's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Galp Energia's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting galp stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.36 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.34 | |||
| Variance | 5.46 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Galp Energia
The number of cover stories for Galp Energia depends on current market conditions and Galp Energia's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Galp Energia is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Galp Energia's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Galp Stock Analysis
When running Galp Energia's price analysis, check to measure Galp Energia's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Galp Energia is operating at the current time. Most of Galp Energia's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Galp Energia's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Galp Energia's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Galp Energia to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.