Golub Capital Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| GBDC Stock | USD 15.38 0.08 0.52% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Golub Capital BDC on the next trading day is expected to be 15.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.17. Golub Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Golub Capital stock prices and determine the direction of Golub Capital BDC's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Golub Capital's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Golub |
Golub Capital Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Golub Capital's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2009-12-31 | Previous Quarter 464.7 M | Current Value 131.2 M | Quarterly Volatility 78.7 M |
Golub Capital Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Golub Capital BDC on the next trading day is expected to be 15.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.17.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Golub Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Golub Capital's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Golub Capital Stock Forecast Pattern
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Golub Capital Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Golub Capital's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Golub Capital's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.57 and 16.21, respectively. We have considered Golub Capital's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Golub Capital stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Golub Capital stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.0509 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1012 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0067 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.1709 |
Predictive Modules for Golub Capital
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Golub Capital BDC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Golub Capital's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Golub Capital
For every potential investor in Golub, whether a beginner or expert, Golub Capital's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Golub Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Golub. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Golub Capital's price trends.Golub Capital Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Golub Capital stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Golub Capital could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Golub Capital by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Golub Capital BDC Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Golub Capital's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Golub Capital's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Golub Capital Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Golub Capital stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Golub Capital shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Golub Capital stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Golub Capital BDC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 20956.11 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.3636 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 15.44 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 15.42 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.02) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.08 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 55.21 |
Golub Capital Risk Indicators
The analysis of Golub Capital's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Golub Capital's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting golub stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6045 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6524 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.815 | |||
| Variance | 0.6642 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.6583 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.4256 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.69) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Golub Capital BDC offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Golub Capital's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Golub Capital Bdc Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Golub Capital Bdc Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Golub Capital to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Is Asset Management & Custody Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Golub Capital. If investors know Golub will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Golub Capital listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.89) | Earnings Share 1.36 | Revenue Per Share 3.747 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.107 | Return On Assets 0.0471 |
The market value of Golub Capital BDC is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Golub that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Golub Capital's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Golub Capital's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Golub Capital's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Golub Capital's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Golub Capital's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Golub Capital is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Golub Capital's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.