GD Culture Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| GDC Stock | 3.40 0.12 3.41% |
GDC Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast GD Culture stock prices and determine the direction of GD Culture Group's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of GD Culture's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of GD Culture's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using GD Culture hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of GD Culture Group from the perspective of GD Culture response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of GD Culture Group on the next trading day is expected to be 3.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.15. GD Culture after-hype prediction price | USD 3.47 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of GD Culture to cross-verify your projections. GD Culture Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine GDC price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for GDC using various technical indicators. When you analyze GDC charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
GD Culture Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of GD Culture Group on the next trading day is expected to be 3.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25, mean absolute percentage error of 0.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.15.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict GDC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that GD Culture's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
GD Culture Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest GD Culture | GD Culture Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
GD Culture Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting GD Culture's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. GD Culture's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 12.64, respectively. We have considered GD Culture's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of GD Culture stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent GD Culture stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.2505 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0078 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2525 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0574 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 15.15 |
Predictive Modules for GD Culture
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GD Culture Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of GD Culture's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
GD Culture After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of GD Culture at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in GD Culture or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of GD Culture, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
GD Culture Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting GD Culture's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on GD Culture's historical news coverage. GD Culture's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.17 and 12.77, respectively. We have considered GD Culture's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
GD Culture is dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of GD Culture Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
GD Culture Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as GD Culture is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading GD Culture backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with GD Culture, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.16 | 9.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
3.40 | 3.47 | 1.42 |
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GD Culture Hype Timeline
On the 5th of February GD Culture Group is traded for 3.40. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. GDC is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 3.47. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -1.42%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.16%. The volatility of related hype on GD Culture is about 42000.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.40. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.27. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. GD Culture Group had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:30 split on the 9th of November 2022. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of GD Culture to cross-verify your projections.GD Culture Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to GD Culture's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict GD Culture's future price movements. Getting to know how GD Culture's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how GD Culture may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MEI | Methode Electronics | 0.1 | 11 per month | 3.46 | 0.13 | 5.35 | (4.16) | 18.04 | |
| ONTF | ON24 Inc | 0.08 | 10 per month | 1.22 | 0.12 | 4.60 | (2.39) | 38.78 | |
| AZ | A2Z Smart Technologies | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.52 | 0.02 | 7.60 | (6.89) | 25.03 | |
| UIS | Unisys | 0.04 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 5.30 | (5.61) | 20.18 | |
| GCL | GCL Global Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 8.91 | (8.18) | 37.27 | |
| DMRC | Digimarc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 6.01 | (8.01) | 25.20 | |
| KLTR | Kaltura | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.01) | 8.16 | (6.70) | 34.84 | |
| VUZI | Vuzix Corp Cmn | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 8.45 | (9.26) | 43.23 | |
| EB | Eventbrite Class A | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.11 | 2.79 | (2.23) | 79.53 | |
| SMRT | SmartRent | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.15 | 0.08 | 5.75 | (3.89) | 21.69 |
Other Forecasting Options for GD Culture
For every potential investor in GDC, whether a beginner or expert, GD Culture's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. GDC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in GDC. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying GD Culture's price trends.GD Culture Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with GD Culture stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of GD Culture could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing GD Culture by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
GD Culture Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how GD Culture stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading GD Culture shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying GD Culture stock market strength indicators, traders can identify GD Culture Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 3572.11 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.32) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 3.29 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 3.33 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.05 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.12) |
GD Culture Risk Indicators
The analysis of GD Culture's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in GD Culture's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gdc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.87 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 6.25 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 9.24 | |||
| Variance | 85.32 | |||
| Downside Variance | 40.39 | |||
| Semi Variance | 39.07 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (7.32) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for GD Culture
The number of cover stories for GD Culture depends on current market conditions and GD Culture's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that GD Culture is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about GD Culture's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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GD Culture Short Properties
GD Culture's future price predictability will typically decrease when GD Culture's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of GD Culture Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential GD Culture's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. GD Culture's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 9.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 22.5 K | |
| Shares Float | 49.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of GD Culture to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the ETF Categories module to list of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments.
Will Movies & Entertainment sector continue expanding? Could GDC diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of GD Culture. Market participants price GDC higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every GD Culture data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Understanding GD Culture Group requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects GDC's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what GD Culture's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push GD Culture's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between GD Culture's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if GD Culture is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. In contrast, GD Culture's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.