Defensive Market Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

GDMZX Fund  USD 11.75  0.01  0.09%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Defensive Market Strategies on the next trading day is expected to be 11.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.26. Defensive Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Defensive Market's mutual fund price is slightly above 69. This usually indicates that the mutual fund is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Defensive, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 69

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Defensive Market's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Defensive Market Strategies, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Defensive Market hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Defensive Market Strategies from the perspective of Defensive Market response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Defensive Market Strategies on the next trading day is expected to be 11.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.26.

Defensive Market after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 11.75  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Defensive Market to cross-verify your projections.

Defensive Market Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Defensive price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Defensive using various technical indicators. When you analyze Defensive charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Defensive Market simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Defensive Market Strategies are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Defensive Market Str prices get older.

Defensive Market Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Defensive Market Strategies on the next trading day is expected to be 11.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.26.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Defensive Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Defensive Market's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Defensive Market Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Defensive MarketDefensive Market Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Defensive Market Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Defensive Market's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Defensive Market's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.73 and 12.77, respectively. We have considered Defensive Market's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
11.75
11.75
Expected Value
12.77
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Defensive Market mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Defensive Market mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria111.9267
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0167
MADMean absolute deviation0.0543
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0049
SAESum of the absolute errors3.26
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Defensive Market Strategies forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Defensive Market observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Defensive Market

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Defensive Market Str. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
10.7311.7512.77
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
11.6212.6413.66
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
10.8911.5412.19
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Defensive Market. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Defensive Market's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Defensive Market's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Defensive Market Str.

Other Forecasting Options for Defensive Market

For every potential investor in Defensive, whether a beginner or expert, Defensive Market's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Defensive Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Defensive. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Defensive Market's price trends.

Defensive Market Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Defensive Market mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Defensive Market could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Defensive Market by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Defensive Market Str Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Defensive Market's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Defensive Market's current price.

Defensive Market Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Defensive Market mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Defensive Market shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Defensive Market mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Defensive Market Strategies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Defensive Market Risk Indicators

The analysis of Defensive Market's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Defensive Market's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting defensive mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Defensive Mutual Fund

Defensive Market financial ratios help investors to determine whether Defensive Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Defensive with respect to the benefits of owning Defensive Market security.
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