Graham Holdings Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| GHC Stock | USD 1,087 11.34 1.03% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Graham Holdings Co on the next trading day is expected to be 1,087 with a mean absolute deviation of 14.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 865.96. Graham Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Graham Holdings stock prices and determine the direction of Graham Holdings Co's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Graham Holdings' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Graham Holdings' share price is above 70 at the present time. This usually indicates that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Graham, making its price go up or down. Momentum 76
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.702 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 11.59 | EPS Estimate Current Year 46.85 | EPS Estimate Next Year 67.35 | Wall Street Target Price 945 |
Using Graham Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Graham Holdings Co from the perspective of Graham Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Graham Holdings Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Graham Holdings' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Graham. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Graham can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Graham Holdings Co. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Graham Holdings' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Graham Holdings.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Graham Holdings Co on the next trading day is expected to be 1,087 with a mean absolute deviation of 14.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 865.96. Graham Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 1087.06 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Graham Holdings to cross-verify your projections. Graham Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Graham price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Graham using various technical indicators. When you analyze Graham charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Graham Holdings Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 6th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Graham Holdings Co on the next trading day is expected to be 1,087 with a mean absolute deviation of 14.43, mean absolute percentage error of 435.28, and the sum of the absolute errors of 865.96.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Graham Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Graham Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Graham Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Graham Holdings | Graham Holdings Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Graham Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Graham Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Graham Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,085 and 1,089, respectively. We have considered Graham Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Graham Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Graham Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.3486 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 14.4327 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0138 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 865.96 |
Predictive Modules for Graham Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Graham Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Graham Holdings
For every potential investor in Graham, whether a beginner or expert, Graham Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Graham Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Graham. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Graham Holdings' price trends.Graham Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Graham Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Graham Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Graham Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Graham Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Graham Holdings' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Graham Holdings' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Graham Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Graham Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Graham Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Graham Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Graham Holdings Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0169 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.61) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1091.18 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1089.87 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 18.59 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (9.59) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (11.34) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 76.87 |
Graham Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of Graham Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Graham Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting graham stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.03 | |||
| Variance | 4.14 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.| JBL | Jabil Circuit | |
| MRK | Merck Company | |
| AMGN | Amgen Inc |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Graham Holdings to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.
Is Diversified Consumer Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Graham Holdings. If investors know Graham will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Graham Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.702 | Dividend Share 8.92 | Earnings Share 165.7 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.059 |
The market value of Graham Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Graham that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Graham Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Graham Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Graham Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Graham Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Graham Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Graham Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Graham Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.