Gildan Activewear Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

GIL Stock  CAD 91.26  0.58  0.64%   
Gildan Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Gildan Activewear's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Gildan Activewear's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Gildan Activewear fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength index (RSI) of Gildan Activewear's share price is at 59. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Gildan Activewear, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 59

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Gildan Activewear's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Gildan Activewear, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Gildan Activewear's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.02)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.9271
EPS Estimate Current Year
3.487
EPS Estimate Next Year
4.5178
Wall Street Target Price
98.0927
Using Gildan Activewear hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Gildan Activewear from the perspective of Gildan Activewear response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Gildan Activewear on the next trading day is expected to be 90.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 75.93.

Gildan Activewear after-hype prediction price

    
  CAD 91.17  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gildan Activewear to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Gildan Stock, please use our How to Invest in Gildan Activewear guide.

Gildan Activewear Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Gildan price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Gildan using various technical indicators. When you analyze Gildan charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Gildan Activewear polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Gildan Activewear as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Gildan Activewear Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Gildan Activewear on the next trading day is expected to be 90.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.22, mean absolute percentage error of 2.42, and the sum of the absolute errors of 75.93.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Gildan Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Gildan Activewear's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Gildan Activewear Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Gildan Activewear  Gildan Activewear Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Gildan Activewear Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Gildan Activewear's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Gildan Activewear's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 88.80 and 92.41, respectively. We have considered Gildan Activewear's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
91.26
90.60
Expected Value
92.41
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Gildan Activewear stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Gildan Activewear stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.834
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.2246
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0145
SAESum of the absolute errors75.9267
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Gildan Activewear historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Gildan Activewear

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gildan Activewear. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
89.3691.1792.98
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
86.2788.08100.39
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
84.1488.1492.13
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.850.930.90
Details

Gildan Activewear After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Gildan Activewear at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Gildan Activewear or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Gildan Activewear, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Gildan Activewear Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Gildan Activewear's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Gildan Activewear's historical news coverage. Gildan Activewear's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 89.36 and 92.98, respectively. We have considered Gildan Activewear's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
91.26
91.17
After-hype Price
92.98
Upside
Gildan Activewear is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Gildan Activewear is based on 3 months time horizon.

Gildan Activewear Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Gildan Activewear is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Gildan Activewear backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Gildan Activewear, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.19 
1.81
  0.09 
  0.01 
9 Events / Month
2 Events / Month
In about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
91.26
91.17
0.10 
385.11  
Notes

Gildan Activewear Hype Timeline

Gildan Activewear is currently traded for 91.26on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.09, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Gildan is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 91.17. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price drop on the next news is expected to be -0.1%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.19%. The volatility of related hype on Gildan Activewear is about 2585.71%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 91.25. About 75.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.67. Gildan Activewear last dividend was issued on the 19th of November 2025. The entity had 2:1 split on the 30th of March 2015. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next expected press release will be in about 9 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gildan Activewear to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Gildan Stock, please use our How to Invest in Gildan Activewear guide.

Gildan Activewear Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Gildan Activewear's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Gildan Activewear's future price movements. Getting to know how Gildan Activewear's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Gildan Activewear may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
CCL-BCCL Industries(0.47)3 per month 1.07  0.04  1.89 (1.75) 10.95 
CCL-ACCL Industries(0.47)10 per month 0.94  0.07  2.94 (1.07) 13.40 
CTCCanadian Tire(0.47)6 per month 0.00 (0.17) 2.28 (2.53) 6.36 
CTC-ACanadian Tire(0.47)2 per month 1.03 (0.05) 1.64 (1.49) 8.14 
ATZAritzia 1.65 7 per month 1.81  0.12  4.14 (2.74) 11.28 
MGMagna International 0.04 4 per month 1.12  0.08  3.37 (2.47) 9.69 
GOOSCanada Goose Holdings 0.09 6 per month 0.00 (0.06) 3.54 (4.83) 17.28 
DOOBRP Inc(0.47)4 per month 1.47  0.08  4.92 (2.57) 13.29 
LNRLinamar(0.13)5 per month 0.93  0.11  3.73 (1.89) 8.76 
IFAiFabric Corp 0.00 5 per month 3.14  0.13  12.67 (6.70) 22.13 

Other Forecasting Options for Gildan Activewear

For every potential investor in Gildan, whether a beginner or expert, Gildan Activewear's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Gildan Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Gildan. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Gildan Activewear's price trends.

Gildan Activewear Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Gildan Activewear stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Gildan Activewear could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Gildan Activewear by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Gildan Activewear Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Gildan Activewear stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Gildan Activewear shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Gildan Activewear stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Gildan Activewear entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Gildan Activewear Risk Indicators

The analysis of Gildan Activewear's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Gildan Activewear's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gildan stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Gildan Activewear

The number of cover stories for Gildan Activewear depends on current market conditions and Gildan Activewear's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Gildan Activewear is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Gildan Activewear's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Gildan Activewear Short Properties

Gildan Activewear's future price predictability will typically decrease when Gildan Activewear's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Gildan Activewear often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Gildan Activewear's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Gildan Activewear's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding163.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments155.6 M
When determining whether Gildan Activewear is a strong investment it is important to analyze Gildan Activewear's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Gildan Activewear's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Gildan Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gildan Activewear to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Gildan Stock, please use our How to Invest in Gildan Activewear guide.
You can also try the Companies Directory module to evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Gildan Activewear's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Gildan Activewear is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Gildan Activewear's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.