Glencore PLC Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction
| GLNCY Stock | USD 13.62 0.47 3.57% |
Glencore Pink Sheet outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Glencore PLC's share price is above 70 at this time. This usually indicates that the pink sheet is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Glencore, making its price go up or down. Momentum 74
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Glencore PLC hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Glencore PLC ADR from the perspective of Glencore PLC response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Glencore PLC ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 13.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.85. Glencore PLC after-hype prediction price | USD 12.85 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Glencore |
Glencore PLC Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Glencore price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Glencore using various technical indicators. When you analyze Glencore charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Glencore PLC Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Glencore PLC ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 13.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.85.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Glencore Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Glencore PLC's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Glencore PLC Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Glencore PLC | Glencore PLC Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Glencore PLC Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Glencore PLC's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Glencore PLC's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.65 and 16.09, respectively. We have considered Glencore PLC's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Glencore PLC pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Glencore PLC pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.4055 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2106 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0206 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12.847 |
Predictive Modules for Glencore PLC
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Glencore PLC ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Glencore PLC's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Glencore PLC After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Glencore PLC at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Glencore PLC or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Glencore PLC, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Glencore PLC Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Glencore PLC's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Glencore PLC's historical news coverage. Glencore PLC's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.63 and 15.07, respectively. We have considered Glencore PLC's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Glencore PLC is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Glencore PLC ADR is based on 3 months time horizon.
Glencore PLC Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Glencore PLC is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Glencore PLC backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Glencore PLC, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.65 | 2.22 | 0.77 | 0.41 | 22 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 22 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
13.62 | 12.85 | 5.65 |
|
Glencore PLC Hype Timeline
Glencore PLC ADR is currently traded for 13.62. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.77, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.41. Glencore is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 12.85. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 188.14%. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -5.65%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.65%. The volatility of related hype on Glencore PLC is about 356.01%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 14.03. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.81. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Glencore PLC ADR has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.41. The entity last dividend was issued on the 1st of September 2022. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 22 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Glencore PLC to cross-verify your projections.Glencore PLC Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Glencore PLC's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Glencore PLC's future price movements. Getting to know how Glencore PLC's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Glencore PLC may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Other Forecasting Options for Glencore PLC
For every potential investor in Glencore, whether a beginner or expert, Glencore PLC's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Glencore Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Glencore. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Glencore PLC's price trends.Glencore PLC Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Glencore PLC pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Glencore PLC could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Glencore PLC by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Glencore PLC Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Glencore PLC pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Glencore PLC shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Glencore PLC pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Glencore PLC ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Glencore PLC Risk Indicators
The analysis of Glencore PLC's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Glencore PLC's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting glencore pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.55 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.23 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.19 | |||
| Variance | 4.8 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.15 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.52 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.78) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Glencore PLC
The number of cover stories for Glencore PLC depends on current market conditions and Glencore PLC's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Glencore PLC is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Glencore PLC's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
Story Categories
Currently Trending Categories
Additional Tools for Glencore Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Glencore PLC's price analysis, check to measure Glencore PLC's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Glencore PLC is operating at the current time. Most of Glencore PLC's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Glencore PLC's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Glencore PLC's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Glencore PLC to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.