Glg Intl Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Regression

GLVIX Fund  USD 85.70  0.10  0.12%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Glg Intl Small on the next trading day is expected to be 87.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.93 and the sum of the absolute errors of 181.78. Glg Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Glg Intl's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the mutual fund is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Glg Intl's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Glg Intl Small, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Glg Intl hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Glg Intl Small from the perspective of Glg Intl response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Glg Intl Small on the next trading day is expected to be 87.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.93 and the sum of the absolute errors of 181.78.

Glg Intl after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 85.7  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Glg Intl to cross-verify your projections.

Glg Intl Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Glg price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Glg using various technical indicators. When you analyze Glg charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Glg Intl price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Glg Intl Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 25th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Glg Intl Small on the next trading day is expected to be 87.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.93, mean absolute percentage error of 11.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 181.78.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Glg Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Glg Intl's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Glg Intl Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Glg IntlGlg Intl Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Glg Intl Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Glg Intl's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Glg Intl's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 84.91 and 89.33, respectively. We have considered Glg Intl's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
85.70
87.12
Expected Value
89.33
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Glg Intl mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Glg Intl mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria122.3584
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.9319
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0376
SAESum of the absolute errors181.777
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Glg Intl Small historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Glg Intl

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Glg Intl Small. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
83.4785.7087.93
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
72.3374.5694.27
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
71.0882.0292.96
Details

Glg Intl After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Glg Intl at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Glg Intl or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Glg Intl, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Glg Intl Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Glg Intl's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Glg Intl's historical news coverage. Glg Intl's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 83.47 and 87.93, respectively. We have considered Glg Intl's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
85.70
85.70
After-hype Price
87.93
Upside
Glg Intl is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Glg Intl Small is based on 3 months time horizon.

Glg Intl Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Glg Intl is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Glg Intl backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Glg Intl, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.21 
2.21
  0.05 
 0.00  
1 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Very soon
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
85.70
85.70
0.00 
850.00  
Notes

Glg Intl Hype Timeline

Glg Intl Small is currently traded for 85.70. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Glg is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.21%. %. The volatility of related hype on Glg Intl is about 154700.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 85.70. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.79. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Glg Intl Small last dividend was issued on the 13th of December 2019. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be very soon.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Glg Intl to cross-verify your projections.

Glg Intl Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Glg Intl's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Glg Intl's future price movements. Getting to know how Glg Intl's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Glg Intl may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Glg Intl

For every potential investor in Glg, whether a beginner or expert, Glg Intl's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Glg Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Glg. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Glg Intl's price trends.

Glg Intl Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Glg Intl mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Glg Intl could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Glg Intl by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Glg Intl Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Glg Intl mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Glg Intl shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Glg Intl mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Glg Intl Small entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Glg Intl Risk Indicators

The analysis of Glg Intl's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Glg Intl's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting glg mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Glg Intl

The number of cover stories for Glg Intl depends on current market conditions and Glg Intl's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Glg Intl is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Glg Intl's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Other Information on Investing in Glg Mutual Fund

Glg Intl financial ratios help investors to determine whether Glg Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Glg with respect to the benefits of owning Glg Intl security.
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