Globus Medical Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| GMED Stock | USD 91.96 1.02 1.10% |
Globus Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Globus Medical stock prices and determine the direction of Globus Medical's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Globus Medical's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Globus Medical's stock price is about 60. This usually indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Globus, making its price go up or down. Momentum 60
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Oversold | Overbought |
Using Globus Medical hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Globus Medical from the perspective of Globus Medical response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Globus Medical on the next trading day is expected to be 89.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 132.56. Globus Medical after-hype prediction price | USD 91.96 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Globus Medical to cross-verify your projections. Globus Medical Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Globus price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Globus using various technical indicators. When you analyze Globus charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Globus Medical Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Globus Medical on the next trading day is expected to be 89.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.17, mean absolute percentage error of 10.51, and the sum of the absolute errors of 132.56.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Globus Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Globus Medical's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Globus Medical Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Globus Medical | Globus Medical Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Globus Medical Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Globus Medical's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Globus Medical's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 84.35 and 94.15, respectively. We have considered Globus Medical's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Globus Medical stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Globus Medical stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.4632 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.1732 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0278 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 132.5648 |
Predictive Modules for Globus Medical
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Globus Medical. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Globus Medical's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Globus Medical After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Globus Medical at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Globus Medical or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Globus Medical, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Globus Medical Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Globus Medical's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Globus Medical's historical news coverage. Globus Medical's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 87.06 and 96.86, respectively. We have considered Globus Medical's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Globus Medical is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Globus Medical is based on 3 months time horizon.
Globus Medical Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Globus Medical is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Globus Medical backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Globus Medical, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.76 | 4.90 | 1.65 | 0.70 | 8 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
91.96 | 91.96 | 0.00 |
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Globus Medical Hype Timeline
Globus Medical is currently traded for 91.96. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.65, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.7. Globus is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.76%. %. The volatility of related hype on Globus Medical is about 533.25%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 92.66. About 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Globus Medical was currently reported as 32.68. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.73. Globus Medical had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Globus Medical to cross-verify your projections.Globus Medical Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Globus Medical's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Globus Medical's future price movements. Getting to know how Globus Medical's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Globus Medical may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BIO | Bio Rad Laboratories | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 4.31 | (2.88) | 8.43 | |
| PEN | Penumbra | 2.38 | 16 per month | 1.05 | 0.21 | 4.14 | (1.94) | 23.11 | |
| HSIC | Henry Schein | 0.18 | 10 per month | 1.10 | 0.12 | 2.43 | (1.97) | 13.60 | |
| ALGN | Align Technology | (1.69) | 11 per month | 1.16 | 0.13 | 4.53 | (2.32) | 10.81 | |
| DVA | DaVita HealthCare Partners | 0.41 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 1.90 | (3.23) | 9.36 | |
| GRFS | Grifols SA ADR | (2.48) | 18 per month | 2.14 | (0.04) | 3.17 | (3.19) | 8.69 | |
| MOH | Molina Healthcare | 5.44 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 3.97 | (5.73) | 17.49 | |
| HQY | HealthEquity | (1.41) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.57 | (3.01) | 16.72 | |
| ATR | AptarGroup | 5.44 | 11 per month | 1.77 | (0.04) | 1.73 | (1.98) | 6.75 |
Other Forecasting Options for Globus Medical
For every potential investor in Globus, whether a beginner or expert, Globus Medical's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Globus Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Globus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Globus Medical's price trends.Globus Medical Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Globus Medical stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Globus Medical could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Globus Medical by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Globus Medical Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Globus Medical stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Globus Medical shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Globus Medical stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Globus Medical entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 25288.3 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.51) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 92.84 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 92.54 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.39) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.02) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 60.96 |
Globus Medical Risk Indicators
The analysis of Globus Medical's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Globus Medical's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting globus stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.1 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.755 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.9 | |||
| Variance | 23.99 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.61 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.57 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.35) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Globus Medical
The number of cover stories for Globus Medical depends on current market conditions and Globus Medical's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Globus Medical is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Globus Medical's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Globus Medical Short Properties
Globus Medical's future price predictability will typically decrease when Globus Medical's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Globus Medical often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Globus Medical's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Globus Medical's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 137.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 890.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Globus Medical to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Globus Stock refer to our How to Trade Globus Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.
Is Health Care Equipment & Supplies space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Globus Medical. If investors know Globus will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Globus Medical listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Globus Medical is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Globus that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Globus Medical's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Globus Medical's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Globus Medical's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Globus Medical's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Globus Medical's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Globus Medical is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Globus Medical's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.