Penumbra Stock Price Patterns

PEN Stock  USD 358.17  0.00  0.00%   
The relative strength index (RSI) of Penumbra's share price is above 70 as of today indicating that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Penumbra, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 71

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Penumbra's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Penumbra, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Penumbra's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.56
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
1.1162
EPS Estimate Current Year
3.7841
EPS Estimate Next Year
5.0469
Wall Street Target Price
348.5333
Using Penumbra hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Penumbra from the perspective of Penumbra response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Penumbra using Penumbra's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Penumbra using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Penumbra's stock price.

Penumbra Short Interest

An investor who is long Penumbra may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Penumbra and may potentially protect profits, hedge Penumbra with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
273.3578
Short Percent
0.0612
Short Ratio
1.81
Shares Short Prior Month
1.6 M
50 Day MA
314.527

Penumbra Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Penumbra's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Penumbra. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Penumbra can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Penumbra. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Penumbra's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Penumbra.

Penumbra Implied Volatility

    
  0.27  
Penumbra's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Penumbra stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Penumbra's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Penumbra stock will not fluctuate a lot when Penumbra's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Penumbra to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Penumbra because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Penumbra after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 358.8  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Penumbra contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Penumbra will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0169% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Penumbra trading at USD 358.17, that is roughly USD 0.0604 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Penumbra's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Penumbra options at the current volatility level of 0.27%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Penumbra Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Penumbra Stock, please use our How to Invest in Penumbra guide.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Penumbra's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
322.35366.30369.50
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
365.62368.82372.02
Details
18 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
317.17348.53386.87
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.181.261.36
Details

Penumbra After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Penumbra at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Penumbra or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Penumbra, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Penumbra Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Penumbra's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Penumbra's historical news coverage. Penumbra's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 355.60 and 362.00, respectively. We have considered Penumbra's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
358.17
355.60
Downside
358.80
After-hype Price
362.00
Upside
Penumbra is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Penumbra is based on 3 months time horizon.

Penumbra Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Penumbra is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Penumbra backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Penumbra, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.80 
3.20
  0.63 
  0.52 
10 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
358.17
358.80
0.18 
405.06  
Notes

Penumbra Hype Timeline

On the 31st of January Penumbra is traded for 358.17. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.63, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.52. Penumbra is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 358.8 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.18%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.8%. The volatility of related hype on Penumbra is about 489.8%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 357.65. The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.19 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 14.01 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 890.99 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days.
Check out Penumbra Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Penumbra Stock, please use our How to Invest in Penumbra guide.

Penumbra Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Penumbra's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Penumbra's future price movements. Getting to know how Penumbra's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Penumbra may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
GMEDGlobus Medical(2.17)12 per month 0.87  0.13  3.67 (2.31) 38.89 
BIOBio Rad Laboratories(9.29)11 per month 0.00 (0.13) 4.31 (2.90) 8.43 
ALGNAlign Technology 5.05 11 per month 1.20  0.13  4.53 (2.32) 10.81 
HQYHealthEquity(0.54)19 per month 0.00 (0.12) 2.57 (3.01) 16.72 
HIMSHims Hers Health(0.35)10 per month 0.00 (0.22) 4.19 (5.66) 15.28 
DVADaVita HealthCare Partners(1.23)24 per month 0.00 (0.20) 1.90 (3.23) 9.36 
CRLCharles River Laboratories 3.09 11 per month 1.66  0.03  3.93 (3.02) 7.64 
HSICHenry Schein 0.18 10 per month 1.23  0.1  2.43 (2.33) 13.60 
BAXBaxter International(0.62)9 per month 0.00 (0.1) 2.82 (3.63) 15.20 

Penumbra Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Penumbra price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Penumbra using various technical indicators. When you analyze Penumbra charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Penumbra Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Penumbra stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Penumbra, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Penumbra based on analysis of Penumbra hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Penumbra's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Penumbra's related companies.
 2023 2024 2025 2026 (projected)
Payables Turnover13.8414.0316.1419.39
Days Of Inventory On Hand376.79337.7303.93262.6

Pair Trading with Penumbra

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Penumbra position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Penumbra will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Penumbra Stock

  0.91GKOS Glaukos CorpPairCorr
  0.61VPT VentriPoint DiagnosticsPairCorr

Moving against Penumbra Stock

  0.64CMWCF Cromwell PropertyPairCorr
  0.58IRTC iRhythm TechnologiesPairCorr
  0.58ASG Aurora Spine CorpPairCorr
  0.46TFX Teleflex IncorporatedPairCorr
  0.4BKRKF PT Bank RakyatPairCorr
  0.38PBCRF PT Bank CentralPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Penumbra could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Penumbra when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Penumbra - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Penumbra to buy it.
The correlation of Penumbra is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Penumbra moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Penumbra moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Penumbra can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Penumbra offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Penumbra's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Penumbra Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Penumbra Stock:
Check out Penumbra Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Penumbra Stock, please use our How to Invest in Penumbra guide.
You can also try the Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.
Will Health Care Equipment & Supplies sector continue expanding? Could Penumbra diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Penumbra. Anticipated expansion of Penumbra directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Penumbra data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.56
Earnings Share
4.18
Revenue Per Share
34.444
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.178
Return On Assets
0.067
Investors evaluate Penumbra using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Penumbra's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Penumbra's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Penumbra's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Penumbra should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, Penumbra's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.