Genfit SA Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction
| GNFTF Stock | USD 6.00 0.00 0.00% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Genfit SA on the next trading day is expected to be 5.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.13. Genfit Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Genfit SA's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 23rd of January 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of Genfit SA's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the pink sheet is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Genfit SA hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Genfit SA from the perspective of Genfit SA response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Genfit SA on the next trading day is expected to be 5.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.13. Genfit SA after-hype prediction price | USD 6.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Genfit |
Genfit SA Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Genfit price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Genfit using various technical indicators. When you analyze Genfit charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Genfit SA Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Genfit SA on the next trading day is expected to be 5.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.13.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Genfit Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Genfit SA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Genfit SA Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Genfit SA | Genfit SA Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Genfit SA Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Genfit SA's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Genfit SA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.65 and 10.02, respectively. We have considered Genfit SA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Genfit SA pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Genfit SA pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.5058 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1825 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0376 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.1298 |
Predictive Modules for Genfit SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Genfit SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Genfit SA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Genfit SA After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Genfit SA at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Genfit SA or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Genfit SA, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Genfit SA Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Genfit SA's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Genfit SA's historical news coverage. Genfit SA's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.35 and 10.65, respectively. We have considered Genfit SA's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Genfit SA is relatively risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Genfit SA is based on 3 months time horizon.
Genfit SA Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Genfit SA is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Genfit SA backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Genfit SA, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.89 | 4.69 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
6.00 | 6.00 | 0.00 |
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Genfit SA Hype Timeline
Genfit SA is currently traded for 6.00. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.04. Genfit is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.89%. %. The volatility of related hype on Genfit SA is about 9571.43%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.04. About 13.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.36. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Genfit SA had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1009:1000 split on the 9th of January 2014. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Genfit SA to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Genfit Pink Sheet please use our How to Invest in Genfit SA guide.Genfit SA Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Genfit SA's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Genfit SA's future price movements. Getting to know how Genfit SA's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Genfit SA may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SPHDF | Santhera Pharmaceuticals Holding | 0.03 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8.71 | |
| JWCTF | JW Therapeutics Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 20.00 | |
| NGENF | NervGen Pharma Corp | 0.03 | 7 per month | 3.15 | 0.16 | 11.62 | (5.73) | 31.61 | |
| BRIBF | Brii Biosciences Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 20.83 | |
| NDTP | NDT Pharmaceuticals | 0.03 | 7 per month | 12.50 | 0.07 | 40.91 | (23.73) | 123.04 | |
| SLNCF | Silence Therapeutics plc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.03 | 12.50 | (11.11) | 71.00 | |
| MLLCF | Molecular Partners AG | (0.11) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 28.86 | |
| TRGNF | Transgene SA | 0.51 | 6 per month | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 61.69 | |
| IPHYF | Innate Pharma | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 12.57 | |
| BXPHF | Botanix Pharmaceuticals Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 7.55 | (0) | 12.86 | (14.73) | 65.39 |
Other Forecasting Options for Genfit SA
For every potential investor in Genfit, whether a beginner or expert, Genfit SA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Genfit Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Genfit. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Genfit SA's price trends.Genfit SA Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Genfit SA pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Genfit SA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Genfit SA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Genfit SA Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Genfit SA pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Genfit SA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Genfit SA pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Genfit SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Genfit SA Risk Indicators
The analysis of Genfit SA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Genfit SA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting genfit pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.58 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.47 | |||
| Variance | 19.99 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Genfit SA
The number of cover stories for Genfit SA depends on current market conditions and Genfit SA's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Genfit SA is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Genfit SA's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Genfit Pink Sheet
When determining whether Genfit SA is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Genfit Pink Sheet is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Genfit Sa Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Genfit Sa Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Genfit SA to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Genfit Pink Sheet please use our How to Invest in Genfit SA guide.You can also try the Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.