Guardian Pharmacy Stock Forward View - 20 Period Moving Average

GRDN Stock   37.24  0.60  1.64%   
Guardian Pharmacy Services's 20 Period Moving Average forecast is generated from the selected price series and evaluated against observed values. Forecast accuracy depends on how stable the recent price trend has been — trending markets suit some models better than others. The forecast is recalculated with each session so it does not rely on stale inputs. A small Bias confirms the model is not systematically over- or under-predicting. The 20 Period Moving Average model projects Guardian Pharmacy at 37.58 for the next trading day, above the most recent closing price. All values shown are model-generated projections and should be evaluated alongside other analytical inputs.
The 20-period moving average forecast for Guardian Pharmacy Services replaces each daily value with the mean of that value and the 20 preceding closing prices. This is a widely used smoothing window that spans approximately one month of trading data.

20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 7th of May

Over a 90-day horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average model forecasts Guardian Pharmacy at 37.58 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 1.52 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.04 , and sum of absolute errors of 63.79 .
This represents a tight forecast with good short-term tracking of Guardian Pharmacy's price movement. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Guardian Pharmacy  Guardian Pharmacy Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

This forecast for Guardian Pharmacy frames the expected trading range using downside and upside bounds rather than a single point target. The current forecast range spans downside near 35.09 and upside near 40.06. The wide range indicates elevated uncertainty in short-term projections.
Market Value
37.24
37.58
Expected Value
40.06

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the 20 Period Moving Average model's error metrics for Guardian Pharmacy stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.
AICAkaike Information Criteria84.645
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.9744
MADMean absolute deviation1.5189
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0404
SAESum of the absolute errors63.7945
The broader window aggressively filters short-term noise in Guardian Pharmacy price data, producing a smooth trend line. This makes it useful for identifying the prevailing direction of Guardian Pharmacy prices but slow to respond to reversals. The model is reliable only for very short-term projections (one to two periods).

Other Forecasting Options for Guardian Pharmacy

Bollinger Bands applied to Guardian Stock price data measure how far Guardian has deviated from its recent average relative to its own volatility. This distinction drives the choice of forecasting model applied to Guardian Pharmacy's price data. On-balance volume for Guardian Stock creates a running indicator of buying versus selling pressure in Guardian. Price departures from the channel boundary often mean-revert, offering tactical signals for Guardian Pharmacy's.

Guardian Pharmacy Related Equities

The peer firms below within the Consumer Staples space frame Guardian Pharmacy's pricing and running costs in context. Looking at Guardian Pharmacy's pricing multiples next to these peers shows if the stock trades at a premium or discount. Falling behind peers on key ratios may signal headwinds or execution issues worth looking into. These links can also guide portfolio spreading choices within the sector.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Guardian Pharmacy Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators for Guardian Pharmacy quantify how the stock responds to shifts in volume and sentiment. These indicators capture shifts in momentum that may precede significant price moves in Guardian Pharmacy. The Market Facilitation Index measures how efficiently price moves relative to volume — rising MFI with rising volume signals strong trend participation. Monitoring these indicators for Guardian Pharmacy through complete market cycles reveals recurring patterns.

Guardian Pharmacy Risk Indicators

Analyzing Guardian Pharmacy's risk indicators separates symmetric price swings from asymmetric downside exposure. Understanding and quantifying the risks present in Guardian Pharmacy helps place recent price behavior in context. These metrics are most informative when compared against similar equities with comparable growth profiles and market capitalization. When semi-deviation is high relative to standard deviation, Guardian Pharmacy's losses have been disproportionately large compared to gains.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Guardian Pharmacy Short Properties

Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Guardian Pharmacy is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. Comparing short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative provides a more grounded view.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding63.3 million
Cash And Short Term Investments65.62 million

More Resources for Guardian Stock Analysis

Initial analysis of Guardian Pharmacy centers on its financial statements and observed trends. These values are derived from Guardian Pharmacy's published financial data.