Guardian Pharmacy Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| GRDN Stock | 36.53 -0.05 -0.14% |
Guardian Pharmacy Services's Polynomial Regression forecast is generated from the selected price series and evaluated against observed values. Forecast accuracy depends on how stable the recent price trend has been — trending markets suit some models better than others. The forecast is recalculated with each session so it does not rely on stale inputs. A small Bias confirms the model is not systematically over- or under-predicting. The Polynomial Regression model projects Guardian Pharmacy at 35.17 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. All values shown are model-generated projections and should be evaluated alongside other analytical inputs.
Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 8th of May
Over a 90-day horizon, the Polynomial Regression model forecasts Guardian Pharmacy at 35.17 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.86 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and sum of absolute errors of 52.58 .This represents a tight forecast with good short-term tracking of Guardian Pharmacy's price movement. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Guardian Pharmacy | Guardian Pharmacy Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This forecast for Guardian Pharmacy frames the expected trading range using downside and upside bounds rather than a single point target. The current forecast range spans downside near 32.71 and upside near 37.62. The wide range indicates elevated uncertainty in short-term projections.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the Polynomial Regression model's error metrics for Guardian Pharmacy stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.2633 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.862 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.024 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 52.5824 |
Other Forecasting Options for Guardian Pharmacy
Bollinger Bands applied to Guardian Stock price data measure how far Guardian has deviated from its recent average relative to its own volatility. This distinction drives the choice of forecasting model applied to Guardian Pharmacy's price data. On-balance volume for Guardian Stock creates a running indicator of buying versus selling pressure in Guardian. Price departures from the channel boundary often mean-revert, offering tactical signals for Guardian Pharmacy's.Guardian Pharmacy Related Equities
The peer firms below within the Consumer Staples space frame Guardian Pharmacy's pricing and running costs in context. Looking at Guardian Pharmacy's pricing multiples next to these peers shows if the stock trades at a premium or discount. Falling behind peers on key ratios may signal headwinds or execution issues worth looking into. These links can also guide portfolio spreading choices within the sector.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Guardian Pharmacy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Guardian Pharmacy quantify how the stock responds to shifts in volume and sentiment. These indicators capture shifts in momentum that may precede significant price moves in Guardian Pharmacy. The Market Facilitation Index measures how efficiently price moves relative to volume — rising MFI with rising volume signals strong trend participation. Monitoring these indicators for Guardian Pharmacy through complete market cycles reveals recurring patterns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 36.53 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 36.53 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.03 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.05 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 49.97 |
Guardian Pharmacy Risk Indicators
Analyzing Guardian Pharmacy's risk indicators separates symmetric price swings from asymmetric downside exposure. Understanding and quantifying the risks present in Guardian Pharmacy helps place recent price behavior in context. These metrics are most informative when compared against similar equities with comparable growth profiles and market capitalization. When semi-deviation is high relative to standard deviation, Guardian Pharmacy's losses have been disproportionately large compared to gains.
| Mean Deviation | 1.88 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.46 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.48 | |||
| Variance | 6.14 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.48 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.04 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.89 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Guardian Pharmacy Short Properties
Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Guardian Pharmacy is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. Comparing short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative provides a more grounded view.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 63.3 million | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 65.62 million |