Grifols SA Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| GRFS Stock | USD 9.20 0.02 0.22% |
Grifols Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The RSI of Grifols SA's share price is at 50. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Grifols SA, making its price go up or down. Momentum 50
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 7.5 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.3588 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.8717 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.3026 | Wall Street Target Price 12.525 |
Using Grifols SA hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Grifols SA ADR from the perspective of Grifols SA response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Grifols SA using Grifols SA's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Grifols using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Grifols SA's stock price.
Grifols SA Short Interest
An investor who is long Grifols SA may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Grifols SA and may potentially protect profits, hedge Grifols SA with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 8.7104 | Short Percent 0.004 | Short Ratio 9.57 | Shares Short Prior Month 6.7 M | 50 Day MA 9.5214 |
Grifols Relative Strength Index
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Grifols SA ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 9.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.27.Grifols SA ADR Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Grifols SA's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Grifols. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Grifols can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Grifols SA ADR. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Grifols SA's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Grifols SA.
Grifols SA Implied Volatility | 0.85 |
Grifols SA's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Grifols SA ADR stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Grifols SA's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Grifols SA stock will not fluctuate a lot when Grifols SA's options are near their expiration.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Grifols SA ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 9.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.27. Grifols SA after-hype prediction price | USD 9.2 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Grifols SA to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Grifols contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Grifols SA ADR will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0531% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Grifols SA trading at USD 9.2, that is roughly USD 0.004887 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Grifols SA's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Grifols SA ADR options at the current volatility level of 0.85%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Grifols Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Grifols SA's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Grifols SA's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Grifols SA stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Grifols SA's open interest, investors have to compare it to Grifols SA's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Grifols SA is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Grifols. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Grifols SA Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Grifols price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Grifols using various technical indicators. When you analyze Grifols charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Grifols SA Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Grifols SA ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 9.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.27.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Grifols Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Grifols SA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Grifols SA Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Grifols SA | Grifols SA Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Grifols SA Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Grifols SA's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Grifols SA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7.22 and 11.24, respectively. We have considered Grifols SA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Grifols SA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Grifols SA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0332 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1378 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0155 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.27 |
Predictive Modules for Grifols SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Grifols SA ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Grifols SA After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Grifols SA at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Grifols SA or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Grifols SA, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Grifols SA Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Grifols SA's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Grifols SA's historical news coverage. Grifols SA's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 7.21 and 11.19, respectively. We have considered Grifols SA's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Grifols SA is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Grifols SA ADR is based on 3 months time horizon.
Grifols SA Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Grifols SA is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Grifols SA backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Grifols SA, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 2.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 3 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 3 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
9.20 | 9.20 | 0.00 |
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Grifols SA Hype Timeline
Grifols SA ADR is currently traded for 9.20. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.01. Grifols is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Grifols SA is about 207.22%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 9.19. About 58.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.03. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Grifols SA ADR has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.23. The entity last dividend was issued on the 12th of August 2025. The firm had 2:1 split on the 4th of January 2016. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 3 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Grifols SA to cross-verify your projections.Grifols SA Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Grifols SA's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Grifols SA's future price movements. Getting to know how Grifols SA's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Grifols SA may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HSIC | Henry Schein | 0.18 | 10 per month | 1.11 | 0.12 | 2.43 | (1.97) | 13.60 | |
| HALO | Halozyme Therapeutics | (0.99) | 8 per month | 1.70 | (0) | 3.12 | (2.83) | 9.83 | |
| MOH | Molina Healthcare | (1.23) | 10 per month | 4.19 | 0 | 3.97 | (4.52) | 17.49 | |
| ATR | AptarGroup | (2.03) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 1.73 | (2.49) | 7.63 | |
| GMED | Globus Medical | (5.48) | 10 per month | 0.82 | 0.13 | 3.67 | (2.31) | 38.89 | |
| DVA | DaVita HealthCare Partners | 0.41 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 1.90 | (3.23) | 9.36 | |
| BIO | Bio Rad Laboratories | 1.56 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 4.31 | (2.90) | 8.24 | |
| AVTR | Avantor | 0.37 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.75 | (3.59) | 25.19 | |
| MASI | Masimo | (0.88) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.06 | (2.71) | 10.00 | |
| CORT | Corcept Therapeutics Incorporated | (1.61) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 6.49 | (7.08) | 58.23 |
Other Forecasting Options for Grifols SA
For every potential investor in Grifols, whether a beginner or expert, Grifols SA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Grifols Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Grifols. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Grifols SA's price trends.Grifols SA Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Grifols SA stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Grifols SA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Grifols SA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Grifols SA Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Grifols SA stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Grifols SA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Grifols SA stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Grifols SA ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Grifols SA Risk Indicators
The analysis of Grifols SA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Grifols SA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting grifols stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.94 | |||
| Variance | 3.78 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Grifols SA
The number of cover stories for Grifols SA depends on current market conditions and Grifols SA's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Grifols SA is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Grifols SA's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Grifols SA Short Properties
Grifols SA's future price predictability will typically decrease when Grifols SA's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Grifols SA ADR often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Grifols SA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Grifols SA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 680 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1 B |
Additional Tools for Grifols Stock Analysis
When running Grifols SA's price analysis, check to measure Grifols SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Grifols SA is operating at the current time. Most of Grifols SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Grifols SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Grifols SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Grifols SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.