Virgin Group Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

GROV Stock  USD 1.40  0.07  5.26%   
Virgin Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength indicator of Virgin Group's stock price is slightly above 60. This usually indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Virgin, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 60

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Virgin Group's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Virgin Group and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Virgin Group's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Virgin Group Acquisition, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Virgin Group's stock price prediction:
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
(0.17)
EPS Estimate Current Year
(0.35)
EPS Estimate Next Year
(0.15)
Wall Street Target Price
2
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
(0.14)
Using Virgin Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Virgin Group Acquisition from the perspective of Virgin Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Virgin Group using Virgin Group's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Virgin using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Virgin Group's stock price.

Virgin Group Implied Volatility

    
  3.23  
Virgin Group's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Virgin Group Acquisition stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Virgin Group's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Virgin Group stock will not fluctuate a lot when Virgin Group's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Virgin Group Acquisition on the next trading day is expected to be 1.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.82.

Virgin Group after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 1.41  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Virgin Group to cross-verify your projections.

Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Virgin Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Virgin Group's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Virgin Group's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Virgin Group stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Virgin Group's open interest, investors have to compare it to Virgin Group's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Virgin Group is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Virgin. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Virgin Group Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Virgin price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Virgin using various technical indicators. When you analyze Virgin charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Virgin Group price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Virgin Group Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 27th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Virgin Group Acquisition on the next trading day is expected to be 1.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.82.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Virgin Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Virgin Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Virgin Group Stock Forecast Pattern

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Virgin Group Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Virgin Group's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Virgin Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 4.24, respectively. We have considered Virgin Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1.40
1.22
Expected Value
4.24
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Virgin Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Virgin Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.0041
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0626
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0493
SAESum of the absolute errors3.8177
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Virgin Group Acquisition historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Virgin Group

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Virgin Group Acquisition. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.071.414.45
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.081.564.60
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
1.822.002.22
Details

Virgin Group After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Virgin Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Virgin Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Virgin Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Virgin Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Virgin Group's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Virgin Group's historical news coverage. Virgin Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.07 and 4.45, respectively. We have considered Virgin Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
1.40
1.41
After-hype Price
4.45
Upside
Virgin Group is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Virgin Group Acquisition is based on 3 months time horizon.

Virgin Group Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Virgin Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Virgin Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Virgin Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.07 
3.02
  0.01 
 0.00  
5 Events / Month
5 Events / Month
In about 5 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
1.40
1.41
0.71 
1,510  
Notes

Virgin Group Hype Timeline

Virgin Group Acquisition is currently traded for 1.40. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Virgin is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 1.41 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price increase on the next news is projected to be 0.71%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.07%. The volatility of related hype on Virgin Group is about 5490.91%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.40. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 203.43 M. Net Loss for the year was (27.42 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 96.72 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 5 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Virgin Group to cross-verify your projections.

Virgin Group Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Virgin Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Virgin Group's future price movements. Getting to know how Virgin Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Virgin Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
YQ17 Education Technology(0.04)5 per month 0.00 (0.13) 6.42 (10.00) 27.82 
DSYBig Tree Cloud(0.01)5 per month 0.00 (0.29) 6.67 (9.68) 25.48 
LOCLLocal Bounti Corp(0.12)15 per month 0.00 (0.14) 5.22 (6.90) 21.33 
WYHGWing Yip Food(0.03)2 per month 0.00 (0.20) 5.71 (9.90) 29.15 
BRFHBarfresh Food Group(0.25)11 per month 0.00 (0.02) 7.84 (6.27) 26.25 
ATPCAgape ATP(0.03)6 per month 15.92  0.02  9.76 (20.91) 189.71 
LSFLaird Superfood 0.00 8 per month 0.00 (0.06) 10.40 (10.20) 37.41 
IMGCIMG Inc(0.1)12 per month 0.00 (0.20) 12.96 (15.15) 47.57 
GNSGenius Group 0.01 10 per month 0.00 (0.13) 8.11 (7.25) 24.04 
FARMFarmer Bros Co 0.02 8 per month 0.00 (0.08) 3.97 (3.90) 18.04 

Other Forecasting Options for Virgin Group

For every potential investor in Virgin, whether a beginner or expert, Virgin Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Virgin Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Virgin. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Virgin Group's price trends.

Virgin Group Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Virgin Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Virgin Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Virgin Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Virgin Group Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Virgin Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Virgin Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Virgin Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Virgin Group Acquisition entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Virgin Group Risk Indicators

The analysis of Virgin Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Virgin Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting virgin stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Virgin Group

The number of cover stories for Virgin Group depends on current market conditions and Virgin Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Virgin Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Virgin Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Virgin Group Short Properties

Virgin Group's future price predictability will typically decrease when Virgin Group's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Virgin Group Acquisition often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Virgin Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Virgin Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding37 M
Cash And Short Term Investments19.6 M

Additional Tools for Virgin Stock Analysis

When running Virgin Group's price analysis, check to measure Virgin Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Virgin Group is operating at the current time. Most of Virgin Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Virgin Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Virgin Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Virgin Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.