GlaxoSmithKline PLC Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| GSK Stock | USD 33.70 0.35 1.05% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of GlaxoSmithKline PLC ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 33.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.68. GlaxoSmithKline Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although GlaxoSmithKline PLC's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of GlaxoSmithKline PLC's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of GlaxoSmithKline PLC fundamentals over time.
GlaxoSmithKline |
GlaxoSmithKline PLC Cash Forecast
To forecast cash or other financial indicators, analysts must employ diverse statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. This approach allows them to detect underlying patterns in the GlaxoSmithKline PLC's financial statements, predicting their influence on future market prices.
Cash | First Reported 1986-06-30 | Previous Quarter 3.2 B | Current Value 3.2 B | Quarterly Volatility 2.3 B |
GlaxoSmithKline PLC Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of GlaxoSmithKline PLC ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 33.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39, mean absolute percentage error of 0.22, and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.68.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict GlaxoSmithKline Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that GlaxoSmithKline PLC's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
GlaxoSmithKline PLC Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest GlaxoSmithKline PLC | GlaxoSmithKline PLC Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
GlaxoSmithKline PLC Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting GlaxoSmithKline PLC's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. GlaxoSmithKline PLC's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 31.87 and 34.94, respectively. We have considered GlaxoSmithKline PLC's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of GlaxoSmithKline PLC stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent GlaxoSmithKline PLC stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.6144 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3882 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0101 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 23.6782 |
Predictive Modules for GlaxoSmithKline PLC
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GlaxoSmithKline PLC ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of GlaxoSmithKline PLC's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for GlaxoSmithKline PLC
For every potential investor in GlaxoSmithKline, whether a beginner or expert, GlaxoSmithKline PLC's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. GlaxoSmithKline Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in GlaxoSmithKline. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying GlaxoSmithKline PLC's price trends.GlaxoSmithKline PLC Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with GlaxoSmithKline PLC stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of GlaxoSmithKline PLC could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing GlaxoSmithKline PLC by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
GlaxoSmithKline PLC ADR Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of GlaxoSmithKline PLC's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of GlaxoSmithKline PLC's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
GlaxoSmithKline PLC Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how GlaxoSmithKline PLC stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading GlaxoSmithKline PLC shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying GlaxoSmithKline PLC stock market strength indicators, traders can identify GlaxoSmithKline PLC ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
GlaxoSmithKline PLC Risk Indicators
The analysis of GlaxoSmithKline PLC's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in GlaxoSmithKline PLC's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting glaxosmithkline stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.12 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.53 | |||
| Variance | 2.34 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Is Pharmaceuticals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of GlaxoSmithKline PLC. If investors know GlaxoSmithKline will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about GlaxoSmithKline PLC listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.28) | Dividend Share 0.61 | Earnings Share 1.54 | Revenue Per Share 15.38 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.02) |
The market value of GlaxoSmithKline PLC ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of GlaxoSmithKline that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of GlaxoSmithKline PLC's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is GlaxoSmithKline PLC's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because GlaxoSmithKline PLC's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect GlaxoSmithKline PLC's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between GlaxoSmithKline PLC's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if GlaxoSmithKline PLC is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, GlaxoSmithKline PLC's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.