Golden Sun Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| GSUN Stock | USD 1.28 0.01 0.79% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Golden Sun Education on the next trading day is expected to be 1.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.48. Golden Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Golden Sun's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Golden Sun's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Golden Sun fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength indicator of Golden Sun's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.74) | Quarterly Revenue Growth 10.722 |
Using Golden Sun hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Golden Sun Education from the perspective of Golden Sun response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Golden Sun Education on the next trading day is expected to be 1.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.48. Golden Sun after-hype prediction price | USD 1.27 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Golden Sun to cross-verify your projections. Golden Sun Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Golden price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Golden using various technical indicators. When you analyze Golden charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Golden Sun Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Golden Sun's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 965.6 K | Current Value 917.3 K | Quarterly Volatility 4.5 M |
Golden Sun Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Golden Sun Education on the next trading day is expected to be 1.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.48.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Golden Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Golden Sun's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Golden Sun Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Golden Sun | Golden Sun Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Golden Sun Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Golden Sun's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Golden Sun's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 6.89, respectively. We have considered Golden Sun's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Golden Sun stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Golden Sun stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.6559 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0898 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0623 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.4778 |
Predictive Modules for Golden Sun
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Golden Sun Education. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Golden Sun's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Golden Sun After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Golden Sun at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Golden Sun or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Golden Sun, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Golden Sun Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Golden Sun's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Golden Sun's historical news coverage. Golden Sun's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.06 and 6.82, respectively. We have considered Golden Sun's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Golden Sun is extremely dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Golden Sun Education is based on 3 months time horizon.
Golden Sun Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Golden Sun is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Golden Sun backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Golden Sun, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.84 | 5.55 | 0.13 | 0.01 | 5 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
1.28 | 1.27 | 0.78 |
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Golden Sun Hype Timeline
Golden Sun Education is currently traded for 1.28. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.13, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Golden is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 1.27. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.78%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.84%. The volatility of related hype on Golden Sun is about 79285.71%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.29. About 16.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 533.17. Golden Sun Education recorded a loss per share of 4.27. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1:10 split on the 19th of April 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Golden Sun to cross-verify your projections.Golden Sun Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Golden Sun's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Golden Sun's future price movements. Getting to know how Golden Sun's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Golden Sun may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EEIQ | Elite Education Group | (0.02) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 8.33 | (6.67) | 24.43 | |
| GNLN | Greenlane Holdings | (0.01) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 6.62 | (10.68) | 26.61 | |
| MYND | Myndai | 0.08 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 4.84 | (8.06) | 19.22 | |
| AQB | AquaBounty Technologies | (0.01) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 7.87 | (9.39) | 29.80 | |
| AMZE | Amaze Holdings | 0.02 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 20.00 | (15.22) | 44.11 | |
| FEDU | Four Seasons Education | 0.00 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 5.29 | (7.55) | 37.12 | |
| EDBL | Edible Garden AG | (0.08) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 11.48 | (11.39) | 44.05 | |
| GV | Visionary Education Technology | 0.08 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 7.46 | (5.80) | 43.33 | |
| XXII | 22nd Century Group | 0.02 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 9.38 | (9.94) | 29.50 | |
| VSTD | Vestand | (0.01) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 11.54 | (15.38) | 41.27 |
Other Forecasting Options for Golden Sun
For every potential investor in Golden, whether a beginner or expert, Golden Sun's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Golden Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Golden. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Golden Sun's price trends.Golden Sun Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Golden Sun stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Golden Sun could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Golden Sun by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Golden Sun Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Golden Sun stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Golden Sun shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Golden Sun stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Golden Sun Education entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Golden Sun Risk Indicators
The analysis of Golden Sun's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Golden Sun's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting golden stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.13 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.37 | |||
| Variance | 28.8 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Golden Sun
The number of cover stories for Golden Sun depends on current market conditions and Golden Sun's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Golden Sun is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Golden Sun's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Golden Sun Short Properties
Golden Sun's future price predictability will typically decrease when Golden Sun's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Golden Sun Education often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Golden Sun's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Golden Sun's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 839.6 K |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Golden Sun to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.
Is Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Golden Sun. If investors know Golden will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Golden Sun listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.74) | Earnings Share (4.27) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 10.722 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Golden Sun Education is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Golden that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Golden Sun's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Golden Sun's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Golden Sun's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Golden Sun's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Golden Sun's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Golden Sun is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Golden Sun's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.