Gurit Holding Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| GURN Stock | 29.30 2.40 8.92% |
Gurit Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Gurit Holding's stock price is slightly above 68. This usually indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Gurit, making its price go up or down. Momentum 68
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.57) | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.2306 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.5366 | Wall Street Target Price 21.2133 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.23) |
Using Gurit Holding hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Gurit Holding AG from the perspective of Gurit Holding response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Gurit Holding AG on the next trading day is expected to be 29.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.66 and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.04. Gurit Holding after-hype prediction price | CHF 29.96 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Gurit |
Gurit Holding Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Gurit price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Gurit using various technical indicators. When you analyze Gurit charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Gurit Holding Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 22nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Gurit Holding AG on the next trading day is expected to be 29.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.66, mean absolute percentage error of 1.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.04.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Gurit Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Gurit Holding's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Gurit Holding Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Gurit Holding | Gurit Holding Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Gurit Holding Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Gurit Holding's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Gurit Holding's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 24.26 and 34.34, respectively. We have considered Gurit Holding's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Gurit Holding stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Gurit Holding stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.1179 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.3072 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6564 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0363 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 40.04 |
Predictive Modules for Gurit Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gurit Holding AG. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Gurit Holding After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Gurit Holding at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Gurit Holding or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Gurit Holding, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Gurit Holding Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Gurit Holding's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Gurit Holding's historical news coverage. Gurit Holding's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 24.92 and 35.00, respectively. We have considered Gurit Holding's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Gurit Holding is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Gurit Holding AG is based on 3 months time horizon.
Gurit Holding Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Gurit Holding is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Gurit Holding backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Gurit Holding, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.84 | 5.04 | 0.66 | 12.46 | 4 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
29.30 | 29.96 | 2.25 |
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Gurit Holding Hype Timeline
Gurit Holding AG is currently traded for 29.30on SIX Swiss Exchange of Switzerland. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.66, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 12.46. Gurit is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 29.96 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price increase on the next news is anticipated to be 2.25%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 1.84%. The volatility of related hype on Gurit Holding is about 74.4%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 41.76. Gurit Holding AG has accumulated 78.99 M in total debt. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 4 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gurit Holding to cross-verify your projections.Gurit Holding Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Gurit Holding's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Gurit Holding's future price movements. Getting to know how Gurit Holding's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Gurit Holding may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SWTQ | Schweiter Technologies AG | 6.00 | 2 per month | 2.96 | (0.01) | 4.55 | (4.30) | 16.81 | |
| CLN | Clariant AG | 0.87 | 2 per month | 1.44 | 0.05 | 2.43 | (2.02) | 16.61 | |
| INRN | Interroll Holding AG | 30.00 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.50 | (3.37) | 12.83 | |
| VACN | VAT Group AG | (0.70) | 4 per month | 1.44 | 0.22 | 4.23 | (2.85) | 18.78 | |
| SOON | Sonova H Ag | (2.30) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 1.65 | (2.43) | 7.15 |
Other Forecasting Options for Gurit Holding
For every potential investor in Gurit, whether a beginner or expert, Gurit Holding's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Gurit Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Gurit. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Gurit Holding's price trends.Gurit Holding Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Gurit Holding stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Gurit Holding could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Gurit Holding by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Gurit Holding Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Gurit Holding stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Gurit Holding shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Gurit Holding stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Gurit Holding AG entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Gurit Holding Risk Indicators
The analysis of Gurit Holding's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Gurit Holding's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gurit stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.7 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.46 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.88 | |||
| Variance | 23.79 | |||
| Downside Variance | 12.97 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.06 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.90) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Gurit Holding
The number of cover stories for Gurit Holding depends on current market conditions and Gurit Holding's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Gurit Holding is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Gurit Holding's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Gurit Holding Short Properties
Gurit Holding's future price predictability will typically decrease when Gurit Holding's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Gurit Holding AG often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Gurit Holding's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Gurit Holding's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 4.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 16.3 M |
Additional Tools for Gurit Stock Analysis
When running Gurit Holding's price analysis, check to measure Gurit Holding's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Gurit Holding is operating at the current time. Most of Gurit Holding's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Gurit Holding's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Gurit Holding's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Gurit Holding to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.