Gabelli Utility Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| GUT Fund | USD 5.24 0.06 1.13% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Gabelli Utility Closed on the next trading day is expected to be 5.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.01. Gabelli Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
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Gabelli Utility Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Gabelli Utility Closed on the next trading day is expected to be 5.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.01.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Gabelli Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Gabelli Utility's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Gabelli Utility Fund Forecast Pattern
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Gabelli Utility Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Gabelli Utility's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Gabelli Utility's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.79 and 6.69, respectively. We have considered Gabelli Utility's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Gabelli Utility fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Gabelli Utility fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.2677 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0105 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0502 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0096 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.01 |
Predictive Modules for Gabelli Utility
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gabelli Utility Closed. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Gabelli Utility's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Gabelli Utility
For every potential investor in Gabelli, whether a beginner or expert, Gabelli Utility's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Gabelli Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Gabelli. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Gabelli Utility's price trends.Gabelli Utility Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Gabelli Utility fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Gabelli Utility could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Gabelli Utility by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Gabelli Utility Closed Technical and Predictive Analytics
The fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Gabelli Utility's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Gabelli Utility's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Gabelli Utility Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Gabelli Utility fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Gabelli Utility shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Gabelli Utility fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Gabelli Utility Closed entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Gabelli Utility Risk Indicators
The analysis of Gabelli Utility's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Gabelli Utility's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gabelli fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8796 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.44 | |||
| Variance | 2.06 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Other Information on Investing in Gabelli Fund
Gabelli Utility financial ratios help investors to determine whether Gabelli Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Gabelli with respect to the benefits of owning Gabelli Utility security.
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