Gyldendal ASA Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| GYL Stock | NOK 470.00 2.00 0.42% |
Gyldendal Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, the value of RSI of Gyldendal ASA's share price is approaching 38. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Gyldendal ASA, making its price go up or down. Momentum 38
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Gyldendal ASA hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Gyldendal ASA from the perspective of Gyldendal ASA response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Gyldendal ASA on the next trading day is expected to be 470.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 380.00. Gyldendal ASA after-hype prediction price | NOK 470.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Gyldendal |
Gyldendal ASA Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Gyldendal price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Gyldendal using various technical indicators. When you analyze Gyldendal charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Gyldendal ASA Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Gyldendal ASA on the next trading day is expected to be 470.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.33, mean absolute percentage error of 169.20, and the sum of the absolute errors of 380.00.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Gyldendal Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Gyldendal ASA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Gyldendal ASA Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Gyldendal ASA | Gyldendal ASA Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Gyldendal ASA Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Gyldendal ASA's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Gyldendal ASA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 467.22 and 472.78, respectively. We have considered Gyldendal ASA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Gyldendal ASA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Gyldendal ASA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.4037 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.7333 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 6.3333 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0138 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 380.0 |
Predictive Modules for Gyldendal ASA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gyldendal ASA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Gyldendal ASA After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Gyldendal ASA at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Gyldendal ASA or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Gyldendal ASA, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Gyldendal ASA Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Gyldendal ASA's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Gyldendal ASA's historical news coverage. Gyldendal ASA's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 467.22 and 472.78, respectively. We have considered Gyldendal ASA's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Gyldendal ASA is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Gyldendal ASA is based on 3 months time horizon.
Gyldendal ASA Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Gyldendal ASA is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Gyldendal ASA backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Gyldendal ASA, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 2.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
470.00 | 470.00 | 0.00 |
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Gyldendal ASA Hype Timeline
Gyldendal ASA is currently traded for 470.00on Oslo Stock Exchange of Norway. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Gyldendal is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.08%. %. The volatility of related hype on Gyldendal ASA is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 470.00. About 93.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.68. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Gyldendal ASA recorded earning per share (EPS) of 15.4. The entity last dividend was issued on the 8th of June 2022. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next expected press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gyldendal ASA to cross-verify your projections.Gyldendal ASA Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Gyldendal ASA's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Gyldendal ASA's future price movements. Getting to know how Gyldendal ASA's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Gyldendal ASA may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AFK | Arendals Fossekompani ASA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.82 | 0.18 | 3.29 | (1.94) | 8.27 | |
| BMA | Byggma | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.85 | 0.03 | 4.35 | (3.50) | 9.11 | |
| AFG | AF Gruppen ASA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.14 | (0.01) | 2.58 | (1.82) | 6.49 | |
| MEDI | Medistim ASA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 4.67 | (3.60) | 12.51 | |
| GOD | Goodtech | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.26 | 0.07 | 3.69 | (2.86) | 14.98 |
Other Forecasting Options for Gyldendal ASA
For every potential investor in Gyldendal, whether a beginner or expert, Gyldendal ASA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Gyldendal Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Gyldendal. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Gyldendal ASA's price trends.Gyldendal ASA Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Gyldendal ASA stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Gyldendal ASA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Gyldendal ASA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Gyldendal ASA Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Gyldendal ASA stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Gyldendal ASA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Gyldendal ASA stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Gyldendal ASA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 470.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 470.0 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.00) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (2.00) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 38.81 |
Gyldendal ASA Risk Indicators
The analysis of Gyldendal ASA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Gyldendal ASA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gyldendal stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.47 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.81 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.8 | |||
| Variance | 7.87 | |||
| Downside Variance | 18.59 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.27 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.29) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Gyldendal ASA
The number of cover stories for Gyldendal ASA depends on current market conditions and Gyldendal ASA's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Gyldendal ASA is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Gyldendal ASA's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Gyldendal ASA Short Properties
Gyldendal ASA's future price predictability will typically decrease when Gyldendal ASA's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Gyldendal ASA often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Gyldendal ASA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Gyldendal ASA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 507.5 M |
Other Information on Investing in Gyldendal Stock
Gyldendal ASA financial ratios help investors to determine whether Gyldendal Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Gyldendal with respect to the benefits of owning Gyldendal ASA security.