Harmony Gold Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| HAM Stock | EUR 18.15 0.85 4.91% |
Harmony Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Harmony Gold's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 5th of February 2026 the relative strength momentum indicator of Harmony Gold's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.467 | Wall Street Target Price 3.32 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.227 |
Using Harmony Gold hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Harmony Gold Mining from the perspective of Harmony Gold response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Harmony Gold Mining on the next trading day is expected to be 19.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.73 and the sum of the absolute errors of 44.74. Harmony Gold after-hype prediction price | EUR 18.31 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Harmony |
Harmony Gold Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Harmony price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Harmony using various technical indicators. When you analyze Harmony charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Harmony Gold Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Harmony Gold Mining on the next trading day is expected to be 19.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.73, mean absolute percentage error of 0.73, and the sum of the absolute errors of 44.74.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Harmony Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Harmony Gold's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Harmony Gold Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Harmony Gold | Harmony Gold Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Harmony Gold Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Harmony Gold's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Harmony Gold's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.43 and 24.11, respectively. We have considered Harmony Gold's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Harmony Gold stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Harmony Gold stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.7955 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7335 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0431 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 44.7428 |
Predictive Modules for Harmony Gold
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Harmony Gold Mining. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Harmony Gold After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Harmony Gold at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Harmony Gold or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Harmony Gold, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Harmony Gold Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Harmony Gold's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Harmony Gold's historical news coverage. Harmony Gold's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 13.97 and 22.65, respectively. We have considered Harmony Gold's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Harmony Gold is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Harmony Gold Mining is based on 3 months time horizon.
Harmony Gold Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Harmony Gold is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Harmony Gold backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Harmony Gold, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.55 | 4.34 | 0.16 | 3.85 | 7 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
18.15 | 18.31 | 0.88 |
|
Harmony Gold Hype Timeline
Harmony Gold Mining is currently traded for 18.15on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.16, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -3.85. Harmony is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 18.31 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price rise on the next news is forecasted to be 0.88%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.55%. The volatility of related hype on Harmony Gold is about 61.93%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 14.30. The company reported the revenue of 61.38 B. Net Income was 8.59 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 29.3 B. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Harmony Gold to cross-verify your projections.Harmony Gold Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Harmony Gold's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Harmony Gold's future price movements. Getting to know how Harmony Gold's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Harmony Gold may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | (6.22) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 6.13 | (5.75) | 14.59 | |
| SEH | SHIN ETSU CHEMICAL | 0.70 | 2 per month | 2.02 | 0.05 | 3.27 | (3.90) | 10.05 | |
| 3RB | RECKITT BENCK GRP | (29.22) | 9 per month | 0.49 | 0.08 | 1.63 | (0.97) | 3.30 | |
| FPMB | FREEPORT MCMORAN | 0.00 | 9 per month | 1.43 | 0.17 | 3.93 | (3.78) | 9.65 | |
| PRU | Prudential plc | (0.30) | 7 per month | 1.39 | 0.12 | 3.13 | (2.42) | 9.24 |
Other Forecasting Options for Harmony Gold
For every potential investor in Harmony, whether a beginner or expert, Harmony Gold's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Harmony Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Harmony. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Harmony Gold's price trends.Harmony Gold Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Harmony Gold stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Harmony Gold could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Harmony Gold by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Harmony Gold Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Harmony Gold stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Harmony Gold shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Harmony Gold stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Harmony Gold Mining entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Harmony Gold Risk Indicators
The analysis of Harmony Gold's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Harmony Gold's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting harmony stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.28 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.28 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.19 | |||
| Variance | 17.56 | |||
| Downside Variance | 13.05 | |||
| Semi Variance | 10.75 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.21) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Harmony Gold
The number of cover stories for Harmony Gold depends on current market conditions and Harmony Gold's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Harmony Gold is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Harmony Gold's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
Story Categories
Currently Trending Categories
Harmony Gold Short Properties
Harmony Gold's future price predictability will typically decrease when Harmony Gold's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Harmony Gold Mining often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Harmony Gold's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Harmony Gold's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 619.9 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 1.4 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Harmony Gold to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.