Health Catalyst Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| HCAT Stock | USD 2.25 0.11 4.66% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Health Catalyst on the next trading day is expected to be 2.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.83. Health Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the rsi of Health Catalyst's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Health Catalyst hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Health Catalyst from the perspective of Health Catalyst response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Health Catalyst on the next trading day is expected to be 2.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.83. Health Catalyst after-hype prediction price | USD 2.25 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Health Catalyst to cross-verify your projections. Health Catalyst Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Health price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Health using various technical indicators. When you analyze Health charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Health Catalyst Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Health Catalyst on the next trading day is expected to be 2.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.83.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Health Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Health Catalyst's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Health Catalyst Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Health Catalyst | Health Catalyst Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Health Catalyst Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Health Catalyst's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Health Catalyst's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 6.31, respectively. We have considered Health Catalyst's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Health Catalyst stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Health Catalyst stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.323 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0281 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0987 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0391 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.825 |
Predictive Modules for Health Catalyst
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Health Catalyst. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Health Catalyst After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Health Catalyst at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Health Catalyst or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Health Catalyst, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Health Catalyst Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Health Catalyst's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Health Catalyst's historical news coverage. Health Catalyst's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.11 and 6.35, respectively. We have considered Health Catalyst's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Health Catalyst is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Health Catalyst is based on 3 months time horizon.
Health Catalyst Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Health Catalyst is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Health Catalyst backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Health Catalyst, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.61 | 4.06 | 0.02 | 0.46 | 28 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 28 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
2.25 | 2.25 | 0.00 |
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Health Catalyst Hype Timeline
Health Catalyst is currently traded for 2.25. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.46. Health is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.61%. %. The volatility of related hype on Health Catalyst is about 535.62%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.71. About 80.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.5. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Health Catalyst recorded a loss per share of 1.58. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 28 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Health Catalyst to cross-verify your projections.Health Catalyst Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Health Catalyst's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Health Catalyst's future price movements. Getting to know how Health Catalyst's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Health Catalyst may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NNOX | Nano X Imaging | (0.11) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 9.44 | (6.06) | 36.87 | |
| PRLD | Prelude Therapeutics | (0.26) | 7 per month | 11.33 | 0.10 | 20.00 | (16.17) | 206.09 | |
| OBIO | Orchestra BioMed Holdings | 0.02 | 9 per month | 3.96 | 0.02 | 10.17 | (6.20) | 19.34 | |
| CRBU | Caribou Biosciences | 2.56 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 6.86 | (8.76) | 20.16 | |
| ENTA | Enanta Pharmaceuticals | (0.60) | 10 per month | 2.69 | 0.07 | 5.67 | (4.04) | 15.79 | |
| OM | Outset Medical | (0.04) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 7.60 | (9.78) | 52.35 | |
| SNWV | SANUWAVE Health Common | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 4.52 | (5.25) | 26.31 | |
| PYXS | Pyxis Oncology | 3.06 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 17.05 | (15.41) | 70.66 | |
| TNYA | Tenaya Therapeutics | 3.45 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 9.02 | (11.04) | 51.79 | |
| HSDT | Helius Medical Technologies | (0.50) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 11.52 | (11.78) | 27.63 |
Other Forecasting Options for Health Catalyst
For every potential investor in Health, whether a beginner or expert, Health Catalyst's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Health Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Health. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Health Catalyst's price trends.Health Catalyst Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Health Catalyst stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Health Catalyst could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Health Catalyst by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Health Catalyst Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Health Catalyst stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Health Catalyst shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Health Catalyst stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Health Catalyst entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Health Catalyst Risk Indicators
The analysis of Health Catalyst's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Health Catalyst's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting health stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.04 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.1 | |||
| Variance | 16.79 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Health Catalyst
The number of cover stories for Health Catalyst depends on current market conditions and Health Catalyst's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Health Catalyst is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Health Catalyst's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Health Catalyst Short Properties
Health Catalyst's future price predictability will typically decrease when Health Catalyst's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Health Catalyst often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Health Catalyst's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Health Catalyst's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 60.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 392 M |
Additional Tools for Health Stock Analysis
When running Health Catalyst's price analysis, check to measure Health Catalyst's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Health Catalyst is operating at the current time. Most of Health Catalyst's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Health Catalyst's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Health Catalyst's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Health Catalyst to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.