Home Depot Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| HD Stock | USD 371.81 3.49 0.93% |
Home Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Home Depot stock prices and determine the direction of The Home Depot's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Home Depot's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The value of RSI of Home Depot's share price is at 51. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Home Depot, making its price go up or down. Momentum 51
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.01) | EPS Estimate Current Year 14.5098 | EPS Estimate Next Year 15.0446 | Wall Street Target Price 394.1212 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 3.834 |
Using Home Depot hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of The Home Depot from the perspective of Home Depot response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Home Depot using Home Depot's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Home using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Home Depot's stock price.
Home Depot Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Home Depot's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Home. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Home Depot stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 374.3387 | Short Percent 0.0118 | Short Ratio 2.66 | Shares Short Prior Month 10.2 M | 50 Day MA 357.406 |
Home Relative Strength Index
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of The Home Depot on the next trading day is expected to be 371.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.75 and the sum of the absolute errors of 280.52.Home Depot Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Home Depot's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Home. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Home can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around The Home Depot. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Home Depot's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Home Depot.
Home Depot Implied Volatility | 0.26 |
Home Depot's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of The Home Depot stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Home Depot's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Home Depot stock will not fluctuate a lot when Home Depot's options are near their expiration.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of The Home Depot on the next trading day is expected to be 371.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.75 and the sum of the absolute errors of 280.52. Home Depot after-hype prediction price | USD 371.81 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Home Depot to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Home contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that The Home Depot will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0163% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Home Depot trading at USD 371.81, that is roughly USD 0.0604 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Home Depot's daily price movement you should consider acquiring The Home Depot options at the current volatility level of 0.26%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Home Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Home Depot's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Home Depot's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Home Depot stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Home Depot's open interest, investors have to compare it to Home Depot's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Home Depot is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Home. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Home Depot Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Home price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Home using various technical indicators. When you analyze Home charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Home Depot Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of The Home Depot on the next trading day is expected to be 371.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.75, mean absolute percentage error of 40.10, and the sum of the absolute errors of 280.52.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Home Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Home Depot's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Home Depot Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Home Depot | Home Depot Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Home Depot Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Home Depot's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Home Depot's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 369.50 and 372.81, respectively. We have considered Home Depot's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Home Depot stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Home Depot stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.6055 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.7546 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0133 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 280.5212 |
Predictive Modules for Home Depot
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Home Depot. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Home Depot's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Home Depot After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Home Depot at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Home Depot or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Home Depot, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Home Depot Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Home Depot's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Home Depot's historical news coverage. Home Depot's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 370.16 and 373.46, respectively. We have considered Home Depot's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Home Depot is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Home Depot is based on 3 months time horizon.
Home Depot Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Home Depot is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Home Depot backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Home Depot, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 1.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
371.81 | 371.81 | 0.00 |
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Home Depot Hype Timeline
As of January 30, 2026 Home Depot is listed for 371.81. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Home is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 72.69%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on Home Depot is about 18.63%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 371.81. About 74.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 14.67. Home Depot last dividend was issued on the 4th of December 2025. The entity had 3:2 split on the 31st of December 1999. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Home Depot to cross-verify your projections.Home Depot Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Home Depot's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Home Depot's future price movements. Getting to know how Home Depot's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Home Depot may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MCD | McDonalds | 3.15 | 6 per month | 0.94 | 0.0009 | 2.16 | (1.49) | 4.64 | |
| MSTSX | Morningstar Unconstrained Allocation | (0.74) | 3 per month | 0.40 | 0.08 | 0.93 | (1.09) | 12.28 | |
| FTGWX | Salient Tactical Growth | (18.23) | 2 per month | 0.43 | 0.10 | 0.96 | (0.93) | 2.59 | |
| ORLY | OReilly Automotive | (0.52) | 8 per month | 1.46 | (0.02) | 2.32 | (2.35) | 6.34 | |
| SEIC | SEI Investments | (1.47) | 11 per month | 1.08 | 0.05 | 2.10 | (1.49) | 7.41 | |
| WILLF | Demant AS | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.32 | (1.28) | 8.87 | |
| GVPIX | Us Government Plus | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 0.76 | (1.27) | 2.68 | |
| QUAZX | Ab Small Cap | (69.37) | 3 per month | 1.53 | 0.02 | 2.05 | (2.40) | 6.53 | |
| CIABX | Western Asset Short | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.49) | 0.20 | (0.20) | 0.40 | |
| KMB | Kimberly Clark | (1.41) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.17 | (1.59) | 17.56 |
Other Forecasting Options for Home Depot
For every potential investor in Home, whether a beginner or expert, Home Depot's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Home Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Home. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Home Depot's price trends.Home Depot Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Home Depot stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Home Depot could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Home Depot by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Home Depot Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Home Depot stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Home Depot shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Home Depot stock market strength indicators, traders can identify The Home Depot entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0241 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.38) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 376.41 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 374.87 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 9.19 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (6.34) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (3.49) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 51.63 |
Home Depot Risk Indicators
The analysis of Home Depot's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Home Depot's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting home stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.17 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.61 | |||
| Variance | 2.58 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Home Depot
The number of cover stories for Home Depot depends on current market conditions and Home Depot's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Home Depot is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Home Depot's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Home Depot Short Properties
Home Depot's future price predictability will typically decrease when Home Depot's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of The Home Depot often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Home Depot's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Home Depot's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 993 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.7 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Home Depot to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
Will Home Improvement Retail sector continue expanding? Could Home diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Home Depot. Market participants price Home higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Home Depot data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.01) | Dividend Share 9.2 | Earnings Share 14.67 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.028 |
Understanding Home Depot requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Home's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Home Depot's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Home Depot's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Home Depot's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Home Depot is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. In contrast, Home Depot's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.