Hennessy Focus Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

Hennessy Focus Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Hennessy price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Hennessy using various technical indicators. When you analyze Hennessy charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur. A naive forecasting model for Hennessy Focus is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Hennessy Focus Fund value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Hennessy Focus Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Hennessy Focus Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 40.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.89, mean absolute percentage error of 7.63, and the sum of the absolute errors of 115.32.

Hennessy Focus Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Hennessy Focus Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hennessy Focus mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hennessy Focus mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Hennessy Focus Fund. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Hennessy Focus. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Hennessy Focus

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hennessy Focus. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 39.55 43.89 48.23 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 41.09 45.43 49.77 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 37.51 40.95 44.39 Details

Hennessy Focus After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

Hennessy Focus Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

Hennessy Focus Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

Hennessy Focus Hype Timeline

Hennessy Focus is currently traded for 43.89. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Hennessy is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.42%. %. The volatility of related hype on Hennessy Focus is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 43.89. The company last dividend was issued on the 6th of December 2019. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hennessy Focus to cross-verify your projections.

Hennessy Focus Related Hype Analysis

Other Forecasting Options for Hennessy Focus

For every potential investor in Hennessy, whether a beginner or expert, Hennessy Focus' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hennessy Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hennessy. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hennessy Focus' price trends.

Hennessy Focus Related Equities

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