Hilton Grand Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| HIE Stock | EUR 38.80 0.60 1.52% |
Hilton Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Hilton Grand's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 7th of February 2026 the relative strength indicator of Hilton Grand's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Wall Street Target Price 50.19 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.01) |
Using Hilton Grand hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Hilton Grand Vacations from the perspective of Hilton Grand response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Hilton Grand Vacations on the next trading day is expected to be 39.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.67 and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.80. Hilton Grand after-hype prediction price | EUR 39.06 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Hilton |
Hilton Grand Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Hilton price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Hilton using various technical indicators. When you analyze Hilton charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Hilton Grand Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 8th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Hilton Grand Vacations on the next trading day is expected to be 39.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.67, mean absolute percentage error of 0.64, and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.80.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hilton Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hilton Grand's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Hilton Grand Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Hilton Grand | Hilton Grand Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Hilton Grand Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Hilton Grand's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hilton Grand's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 36.84 and 41.16, respectively. We have considered Hilton Grand's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hilton Grand stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hilton Grand stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1254 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6746 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0183 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 39.8 |
Predictive Modules for Hilton Grand
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hilton Grand Vacations. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Hilton Grand After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Hilton Grand at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Hilton Grand or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Hilton Grand, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Hilton Grand Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Hilton Grand's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Hilton Grand's historical news coverage. Hilton Grand's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 36.90 and 41.22, respectively. We have considered Hilton Grand's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Hilton Grand is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Hilton Grand Vacations is based on 3 months time horizon.
Hilton Grand Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Hilton Grand is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Hilton Grand backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Hilton Grand, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.22 | 2.16 | 0.26 | 0.04 | 8 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
38.80 | 39.06 | 0.67 |
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Hilton Grand Hype Timeline
Hilton Grand Vacations is currently traded for 38.80on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.26, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. Hilton is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 39.06 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 180.0%. The price rise on the next news is forecasted to be 0.67%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.22%. The volatility of related hype on Hilton Grand is about 1108.05%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 38.84. The company reported the revenue of 4.98 B. Net Income was 47 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.03 B. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hilton Grand to cross-verify your projections.Hilton Grand Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Hilton Grand's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Hilton Grand's future price movements. Getting to know how Hilton Grand's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Hilton Grand may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| E6U | COFFEE HOLDING | 0.04 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 4.17 | (5.11) | 28.32 | |
| BOZA | PT Bank Maybank | (0.0005) | 1 per month | 4.18 | 0 | 5.26 | (5.00) | 25.40 | |
| FOO | Salesforce | 1.80 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 2.76 | (4.41) | 14.31 | |
| MNL | Gruppo Mutuionline SpA | (0.20) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.33) | 2.31 | (2.53) | 7.07 | |
| AON | Aozora Bank | (0.10) | 3 per month | 1.50 | 0.12 | 4.69 | (2.90) | 14.65 | |
| DDN | Darden Restaurants | 1.25 | 9 per month | 1.40 | 0.1 | 3.78 | (2.25) | 9.44 | |
| 6LA | Lamar Advertising | (0.98) | 9 per month | 0.98 | 0.06 | 2.77 | (1.85) | 7.58 | |
| MNL | MUTUIONLINE | (0.25) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.35) | 1.87 | (2.68) | 8.94 |
Other Forecasting Options for Hilton Grand
For every potential investor in Hilton, whether a beginner or expert, Hilton Grand's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hilton Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hilton. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hilton Grand's price trends.Hilton Grand Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hilton Grand stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hilton Grand could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hilton Grand by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Hilton Grand Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Hilton Grand stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Hilton Grand shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Hilton Grand stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Hilton Grand Vacations entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Hilton Grand Risk Indicators
The analysis of Hilton Grand's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hilton Grand's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hilton stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.77 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.81 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.17 | |||
| Variance | 4.7 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.33 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.27 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.13) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Hilton Grand
The number of cover stories for Hilton Grand depends on current market conditions and Hilton Grand's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Hilton Grand is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Hilton Grand's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Hilton Grand Short Properties
Hilton Grand's future price predictability will typically decrease when Hilton Grand's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Hilton Grand Vacations often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Hilton Grand's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Hilton Grand's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 96.7 M | |
| Shares Float | 48.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hilton Grand to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.