Defiance Leveraged Etf Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| HIMY Etf | 5.17 0.00 0.00% |
Defiance Etf outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength momentum indicator of Defiance Leveraged's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the etf is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 33
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Defiance Leveraged hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Defiance Leveraged Long from the perspective of Defiance Leveraged response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Defiance Leveraged Long on the next trading day is expected to be 5.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.66. Defiance Leveraged after-hype prediction price | USD 5.17 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Defiance Leveraged Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Defiance price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Defiance using various technical indicators. When you analyze Defiance charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Defiance Leveraged Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Defiance Leveraged Long on the next trading day is expected to be 5.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42, mean absolute percentage error of 0.33, and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.66.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Defiance Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Defiance Leveraged's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Defiance Leveraged Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Defiance Leveraged | Defiance Leveraged Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Defiance Leveraged Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Defiance Leveraged's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Defiance Leveraged's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.05 and 11.13, respectively. We have considered Defiance Leveraged's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Defiance Leveraged etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Defiance Leveraged etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0983 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.418 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0532 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 24.6634 |
Predictive Modules for Defiance Leveraged
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Defiance Leveraged Long. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Defiance Leveraged After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Defiance Leveraged at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Defiance Leveraged or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of Defiance Leveraged, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Defiance Leveraged Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Defiance Leveraged's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Defiance Leveraged's historical news coverage. Defiance Leveraged's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.26 and 11.19, respectively. We have considered Defiance Leveraged's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Defiance Leveraged is unstable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Defiance Leveraged Long is based on 3 months time horizon.
Defiance Leveraged Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as Defiance Leveraged is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Defiance Leveraged backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Defiance Leveraged, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.31 | 6.06 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 3 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 3 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
5.17 | 5.17 | 0.00 |
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Defiance Leveraged Hype Timeline
Defiance Leveraged Long is currently traded for 5.17. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.13, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.1. Defiance is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -1.31%. %. The volatility of related hype on Defiance Leveraged is about 7870.13%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.27. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 3 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Defiance Leveraged to cross-verify your projections.Defiance Leveraged Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Defiance Leveraged's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Defiance Leveraged's future price movements. Getting to know how Defiance Leveraged's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Defiance Leveraged may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PCEM | Litman Gregory Funds | 0.09 | 1 per month | 0.90 | 0.09 | 1.87 | (1.53) | 3.84 | |
| GEND | Spinnaker ETF Series | (0.01) | 1 per month | 0.50 | 0.03 | 1.32 | (0.95) | 3.40 | |
| BEDZ | AdvisorShares Hotel ETF | (0.07) | 1 per month | 1.19 | (0.03) | 1.92 | (2.45) | 5.98 | |
| SPCY | STKd 100 percent | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 8.75 | (10.25) | 23.46 | |
| DUKX | Ocean Park International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.53 | 0.05 | 1.02 | (1.16) | 2.62 | |
| MCHS | Matthews China Discovery | 0.03 | 2 per month | 0.72 | 0.09 | 1.68 | (1.44) | 3.68 | |
| EAFG | Pacer Funds Trust | (0.08) | 1 per month | 0.60 | 0.09 | 1.28 | (1.20) | 2.93 | |
| HYP | Golden Eagle Dynamic | 0.01 | 2 per month | 2.51 | 0.02 | 3.27 | (4.50) | 11.53 | |
| PLT | Defiance Leveraged Long | 0.88 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 7.94 | (11.38) | 28.74 | |
| BFRE | Ultimus Managers Trust | (0.08) | 15 per month | 0.77 | (0.03) | 1.11 | (1.16) | 3.47 |
Other Forecasting Options for Defiance Leveraged
For every potential investor in Defiance, whether a beginner or expert, Defiance Leveraged's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Defiance Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Defiance. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Defiance Leveraged's price trends.Defiance Leveraged Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Defiance Leveraged etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Defiance Leveraged could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Defiance Leveraged by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Defiance Leveraged Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Defiance Leveraged etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Defiance Leveraged shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Defiance Leveraged etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Defiance Leveraged Long entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0875 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 5.36 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 5.29 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 0.49 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.19) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 33.32 |
Defiance Leveraged Risk Indicators
The analysis of Defiance Leveraged's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Defiance Leveraged's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting defiance etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.61 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.94 | |||
| Variance | 35.25 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Defiance Leveraged
The number of cover stories for Defiance Leveraged depends on current market conditions and Defiance Leveraged's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Defiance Leveraged is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Defiance Leveraged's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Defiance Leveraged to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.
The market value of Defiance Leveraged Long is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Defiance that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Defiance Leveraged's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Defiance Leveraged's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Defiance Leveraged's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Defiance Leveraged's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Defiance Leveraged's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Defiance Leveraged is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Defiance Leveraged's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.