Hookipa Pharma Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| HOOK Stock | USD 0.96 0.04 3.95% |
Hookipa Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Hookipa Pharma's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Hookipa Pharma's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Hookipa Pharma fundamentals over time.
As of now, The RSI of Hookipa Pharma's share price is at 56. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Hookipa Pharma, making its price go up or down. Momentum 56
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.66) | EPS Estimate Current Year (2.60) | EPS Estimate Next Year (1.56) | Wall Street Target Price 2 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.64) |
Using Hookipa Pharma hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Hookipa Pharma from the perspective of Hookipa Pharma response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Hookipa Pharma on the next trading day is expected to be 0.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.67. Hookipa Pharma after-hype prediction price | USD 1.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hookipa Pharma to cross-verify your projections. Hookipa Pharma Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Hookipa price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Hookipa using various technical indicators. When you analyze Hookipa charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Hookipa Pharma Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Hookipa Pharma on the next trading day is expected to be 0.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0002, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.67.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hookipa Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hookipa Pharma's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Hookipa Pharma Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Hookipa Pharma | Hookipa Pharma Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Hookipa Pharma Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Hookipa Pharma's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hookipa Pharma's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 2.76, respectively. We have considered Hookipa Pharma's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hookipa Pharma stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hookipa Pharma stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 109.801 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0019 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.011 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0121 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.6715 |
Predictive Modules for Hookipa Pharma
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hookipa Pharma. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Hookipa Pharma After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Hookipa Pharma at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Hookipa Pharma or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Hookipa Pharma, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Hookipa Pharma Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Hookipa Pharma's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Hookipa Pharma's historical news coverage. Hookipa Pharma's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.05 and 2.72, respectively. We have considered Hookipa Pharma's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Hookipa Pharma is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Hookipa Pharma is based on 3 months time horizon.
Hookipa Pharma Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Hookipa Pharma is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Hookipa Pharma backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Hookipa Pharma, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.16 | 1.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In about 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
0.96 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
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Hookipa Pharma Hype Timeline
Hookipa Pharma is currently traded for 0.96. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Hookipa is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.16%. %. The volatility of related hype on Hookipa Pharma is about 180000.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.96. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.43. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Hookipa Pharma recorded a loss per share of 4.83. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1:10 split on the 10th of July 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 4 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hookipa Pharma to cross-verify your projections.Hookipa Pharma Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Hookipa Pharma's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Hookipa Pharma's future price movements. Getting to know how Hookipa Pharma's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Hookipa Pharma may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LVCLF | Living Cell Technologies | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 61.22 | |
| OXBOF | Oxford BioDynamics Plc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 | (8.00) | 192.86 | |
| IMUC | ImmunoCellular Therapeutics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 16.95 | 0.14 | 80.00 | (37.50) | 223.80 | |
| NYMXF | Nymox Pharmaceutical | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 36.54 | (23.42) | 68.44 | |
| DVHGF | Devonian Health Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6,004 | |
| HMTXF | Hemostemix | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.05 | (0.01) | 9.87 | (8.76) | 41.09 | |
| LIANY | LianBio | 0.00 | 0 per month | 5.66 | 0.08 | 12.12 | (11.43) | 60.61 | |
| SRBCF | Sirona Biochem Corp | 0.01 | 3 per month | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5,000 | |
| PPCB | Propanc Biopharma Common | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.31) | 7.89 | (12.62) | 27.99 | |
| CHMMF | Chimeric Therapeutics Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for Hookipa Pharma
For every potential investor in Hookipa, whether a beginner or expert, Hookipa Pharma's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hookipa Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hookipa. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hookipa Pharma's price trends.Hookipa Pharma Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hookipa Pharma stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hookipa Pharma could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hookipa Pharma by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Hookipa Pharma Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Hookipa Pharma stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Hookipa Pharma shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Hookipa Pharma stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Hookipa Pharma entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.96 | |||
| Day Median Price | 0.96 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 0.96 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.02) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.04) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 56.61 |
Hookipa Pharma Risk Indicators
The analysis of Hookipa Pharma's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hookipa Pharma's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hookipa stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.29 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.36 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.82 | |||
| Variance | 3.32 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.66 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.85 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.97) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Hookipa Pharma
The number of cover stories for Hookipa Pharma depends on current market conditions and Hookipa Pharma's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Hookipa Pharma is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Hookipa Pharma's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Hookipa Pharma Short Properties
Hookipa Pharma's future price predictability will typically decrease when Hookipa Pharma's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Hookipa Pharma often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Hookipa Pharma's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Hookipa Pharma's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 12.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 39.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hookipa Pharma to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Hookipa Stock please use our How to buy in Hookipa Stock guide.You can also try the Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Hookipa Pharma. Market participants price Hookipa higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Hookipa Pharma assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Earnings Share (4.83) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.94) | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
Investors evaluate Hookipa Pharma using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Hookipa Pharma's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Hookipa Pharma's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Hookipa Pharma's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Hookipa Pharma is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, Hookipa Pharma's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.