Healthcare Realty Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| HR Stock | USD 17.80 0.24 1.37% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Healthcare Realty Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 18.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.70. Healthcare Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Healthcare Realty's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Healthcare Realty's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Healthcare Realty fundamentals over time.
Healthcare |
Healthcare Realty Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Healthcare Realty's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1993-06-30 | Previous Quarter 41.8 M | Current Value 22.8 M | Quarterly Volatility 27.9 M |
Healthcare Realty Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Healthcare Realty Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 18.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.70.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Healthcare Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Healthcare Realty's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Healthcare Realty Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Healthcare Realty | Healthcare Realty Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Healthcare Realty Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Healthcare Realty's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Healthcare Realty's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 16.87 and 19.40, respectively. We have considered Healthcare Realty's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Healthcare Realty stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Healthcare Realty stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.6601 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2409 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0138 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.6971 |
Predictive Modules for Healthcare Realty
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Healthcare Realty Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Healthcare Realty
For every potential investor in Healthcare, whether a beginner or expert, Healthcare Realty's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Healthcare Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Healthcare. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Healthcare Realty's price trends.Healthcare Realty Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Healthcare Realty stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Healthcare Realty could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Healthcare Realty by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Healthcare Realty Trust Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Healthcare Realty's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Healthcare Realty's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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Healthcare Realty Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Healthcare Realty stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Healthcare Realty shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Healthcare Realty stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Healthcare Realty Trust entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Healthcare Realty Risk Indicators
The analysis of Healthcare Realty's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Healthcare Realty's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting healthcare stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.01 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.27 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.26 | |||
| Variance | 1.58 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.87 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.62 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.05) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Healthcare Realty
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Healthcare Realty position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Healthcare Realty will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Healthcare Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Healthcare Realty could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Healthcare Realty when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Healthcare Realty - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Healthcare Realty Trust to buy it.
The correlation of Healthcare Realty is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Healthcare Realty moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Healthcare Realty Trust moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Healthcare Realty can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Healthcare Stock Analysis
When running Healthcare Realty's price analysis, check to measure Healthcare Realty's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Healthcare Realty is operating at the current time. Most of Healthcare Realty's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Healthcare Realty's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Healthcare Realty's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Healthcare Realty to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.