Hormel Foods Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| HRL Stock | USD 24.59 0.23 0.94% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Hormel Foods on the next trading day is expected to be 24.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.78. Hormel Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Hormel Foods' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Hormel Foods' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Hormel Foods fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of Hormel Foods' share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.031 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.4644 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.5573 | Wall Street Target Price 27.25 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.3019 |
Using Hormel Foods hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Hormel Foods from the perspective of Hormel Foods response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Hormel Foods using Hormel Foods' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Hormel using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Hormel Foods' stock price.
Hormel Foods Short Interest
An investor who is long Hormel Foods may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Hormel Foods and may potentially protect profits, hedge Hormel Foods with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 26.7497 | Short Percent 0.069 | Short Ratio 3.83 | Shares Short Prior Month 17.1 M | 50 Day MA 23.3924 |
Hormel Foods Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Hormel Foods' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Hormel. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Hormel can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Hormel Foods. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Hormel Foods Implied Volatility | 0.35 |
Hormel Foods' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Hormel Foods stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Hormel Foods' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Hormel Foods stock will not fluctuate a lot when Hormel Foods' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Hormel Foods on the next trading day is expected to be 24.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.78.
Hormel Foods after-hype prediction price | USD 24.35 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hormel Foods to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Hormel contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Hormel Foods will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0219% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Hormel Foods trading at USD 24.59, that is roughly USD 0.005379 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Hormel Foods' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Hormel Foods options at the current volatility level of 0.35%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Hormel Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Hormel Foods' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Hormel Foods' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Hormel Foods stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Hormel Foods' open interest, investors have to compare it to Hormel Foods' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Hormel Foods is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Hormel. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Hormel Foods Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Hormel price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Hormel using various technical indicators. When you analyze Hormel charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Hormel Foods Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Hormel Foods on the next trading day is expected to be 24.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.52, mean absolute percentage error of 0.42, and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.78.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hormel Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hormel Foods' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Hormel Foods Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Hormel Foods | Hormel Foods Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Hormel Foods Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Hormel Foods' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hormel Foods' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 22.45 and 26.08, respectively. We have considered Hormel Foods' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hormel Foods stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hormel Foods stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.2537 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.521 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0228 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 31.7819 |
Predictive Modules for Hormel Foods
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hormel Foods. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Hormel Foods After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Hormel Foods at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Hormel Foods or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Hormel Foods, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Hormel Foods Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Hormel Foods' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Hormel Foods' historical news coverage. Hormel Foods' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 22.53 and 26.17, respectively. We have considered Hormel Foods' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Hormel Foods is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Hormel Foods is based on 3 months time horizon.
Hormel Foods Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Hormel Foods is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Hormel Foods backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Hormel Foods, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 1.82 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
24.59 | 24.35 | 0.04 |
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Hormel Foods Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January Hormel Foods is traded for 24.59. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. Hormel is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 24.35. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.04%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.08%. The volatility of related hype on Hormel Foods is about 297.82%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 24.64. About 91.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.7. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Hormel Foods last dividend was issued on the 12th of January 2026. The entity had 2:1 split on the 10th of February 2016. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hormel Foods to cross-verify your projections.Hormel Foods Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Hormel Foods' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Hormel Foods' future price movements. Getting to know how Hormel Foods' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Hormel Foods may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SJM | The J M | (0.77) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.58 | (2.38) | 6.31 | |
| CPB | Campbells Co | 0.31 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 2.28 | (3.12) | 8.15 | |
| BJ | BJs Wholesale Club | 2.23 | 9 per month | 1.60 | (0.04) | 2.90 | (2.54) | 6.87 | |
| COKE | Coca Cola Consolidated | 0.42 | 9 per month | 1.23 | 0.07 | 3.53 | (2.37) | 9.33 | |
| PPC | Pilgrims Pride Corp | 0.55 | 37 per month | 1.42 | 0.05 | 3.22 | (1.79) | 8.77 | |
| BF-B | Brown Forman | 1.60 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.99 | (3.72) | 8.35 | |
| CAG | ConAgra Foods | 0.49 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 2.29 | (2.53) | 7.20 | |
| LW | Lamb Weston Holdings | 0.02 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 2.51 | (2.96) | 30.35 | |
| CLX | The Clorox | 0.65 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.86 | (2.49) | 7.63 |
Other Forecasting Options for Hormel Foods
For every potential investor in Hormel, whether a beginner or expert, Hormel Foods' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hormel Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hormel. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hormel Foods' price trends.Hormel Foods Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hormel Foods stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hormel Foods could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hormel Foods by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Hormel Foods Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Hormel Foods stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Hormel Foods shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Hormel Foods stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Hormel Foods entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Hormel Foods Risk Indicators
The analysis of Hormel Foods' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hormel Foods' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hormel stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.15 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.82 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.75 | |||
| Variance | 3.05 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.59 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.32 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.28) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Hormel Foods
The number of cover stories for Hormel Foods depends on current market conditions and Hormel Foods' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Hormel Foods is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Hormel Foods' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Hormel Foods Short Properties
Hormel Foods' future price predictability will typically decrease when Hormel Foods' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Hormel Foods often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Hormel Foods' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Hormel Foods' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 550.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 703.6 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hormel Foods to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Hormel Stock please use our How to buy in Hormel Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
Is Packaged Foods & Meats space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Hormel Foods. If investors know Hormel will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Hormel Foods listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.031 | Dividend Share 1.16 | Earnings Share 0.87 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.015 |
The market value of Hormel Foods is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Hormel that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Hormel Foods' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Hormel Foods' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Hormel Foods' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Hormel Foods' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Hormel Foods' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Hormel Foods is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Hormel Foods' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.