HomeTrust Bancshares Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| HTB Stock | 44.38 0.17 0.38% |
HomeTrust Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast HomeTrust Bancshares stock prices and determine the direction of HomeTrust Bancshares's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of HomeTrust Bancshares' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of HomeTrust Bancshares' share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using HomeTrust Bancshares hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of HomeTrust Bancshares from the perspective of HomeTrust Bancshares response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of HomeTrust Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 44.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.12. HomeTrust Bancshares after-hype prediction price | USD 44.33 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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HomeTrust Bancshares Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine HomeTrust price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for HomeTrust using various technical indicators. When you analyze HomeTrust charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
HomeTrust Bancshares Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 10th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of HomeTrust Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 44.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50, mean absolute percentage error of 0.49, and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.12.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict HomeTrust Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that HomeTrust Bancshares' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
HomeTrust Bancshares Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest HomeTrust Bancshares | HomeTrust Bancshares Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
HomeTrust Bancshares Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting HomeTrust Bancshares' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. HomeTrust Bancshares' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 42.77 and 45.99, respectively. We have considered HomeTrust Bancshares' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of HomeTrust Bancshares stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent HomeTrust Bancshares stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.5593 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0727 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.502 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0117 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 30.12 |
Predictive Modules for HomeTrust Bancshares
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as HomeTrust Bancshares. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of HomeTrust Bancshares' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
HomeTrust Bancshares After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of HomeTrust Bancshares at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in HomeTrust Bancshares or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of HomeTrust Bancshares, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
HomeTrust Bancshares Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting HomeTrust Bancshares' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on HomeTrust Bancshares' historical news coverage. HomeTrust Bancshares' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 42.72 and 45.94, respectively. We have considered HomeTrust Bancshares' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
HomeTrust Bancshares is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of HomeTrust Bancshares is based on 3 months time horizon.
HomeTrust Bancshares Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as HomeTrust Bancshares is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading HomeTrust Bancshares backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with HomeTrust Bancshares, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.18 | 1.61 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
44.38 | 44.33 | 0.09 |
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HomeTrust Bancshares Hype Timeline
On the 9th of February HomeTrust Bancshares is traded for 44.38. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.18. HomeTrust is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 44.33 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is insignificant. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.09%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.18%. The volatility of related hype on HomeTrust Bancshares is about 160.2%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 44.56. The company reported the last year's revenue of 295.07 M. Total Income to common stockholders was 54.8 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 206.04 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of HomeTrust Bancshares to cross-verify your projections.HomeTrust Bancshares Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to HomeTrust Bancshares' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict HomeTrust Bancshares' future price movements. Getting to know how HomeTrust Bancshares' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how HomeTrust Bancshares may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MCB | Metropolitan Bank Holding | 10.12 | 8 per month | 0.99 | 0.21 | 3.81 | (1.74) | 19.32 | |
| CCBG | Capital City Bank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.79 | 0.01 | 3.11 | (3.38) | 9.74 | |
| AMTB | Amerant Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.28 | 0.18 | 4.07 | (2.31) | 10.32 | |
| NBN | Northeast Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.49 | 0.22 | 4.10 | (3.68) | 13.72 | |
| CCNE | CNB Financial | (0.01) | 7 per month | 0.93 | 0.13 | 3.12 | (1.55) | 8.97 | |
| BFST | Business First Bancshares | (0.06) | 7 per month | 0.98 | 0.13 | 2.72 | (1.57) | 8.85 | |
| HBNC | Horizon Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.28 | 0.09 | 2.98 | (1.55) | 11.15 | |
| MPB | Mid Penn Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.21 | 0.10 | 3.30 | (1.71) | 10.41 | |
| MBWM | Mercantile Bank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.02 | 0.13 | 3.78 | (1.75) | 9.88 | |
| MCBS | MetroCity Bankshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.34 | 0.07 | 3.87 | (2.40) | 9.79 |
Other Forecasting Options for HomeTrust Bancshares
For every potential investor in HomeTrust, whether a beginner or expert, HomeTrust Bancshares' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. HomeTrust Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in HomeTrust. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying HomeTrust Bancshares' price trends.HomeTrust Bancshares Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with HomeTrust Bancshares stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of HomeTrust Bancshares could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing HomeTrust Bancshares by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
HomeTrust Bancshares Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how HomeTrust Bancshares stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading HomeTrust Bancshares shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying HomeTrust Bancshares stock market strength indicators, traders can identify HomeTrust Bancshares entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 2026.36 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.13) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 44.36 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 44.37 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.07) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.17) |
HomeTrust Bancshares Risk Indicators
The analysis of HomeTrust Bancshares' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in HomeTrust Bancshares' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hometrust stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.15 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.29 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.61 | |||
| Variance | 2.59 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.11 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.67 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.36) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for HomeTrust Bancshares
The number of cover stories for HomeTrust Bancshares depends on current market conditions and HomeTrust Bancshares' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that HomeTrust Bancshares is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about HomeTrust Bancshares' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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HomeTrust Bancshares Short Properties
HomeTrust Bancshares' future price predictability will typically decrease when HomeTrust Bancshares' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of HomeTrust Bancshares often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential HomeTrust Bancshares' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. HomeTrust Bancshares' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 17 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 459.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of HomeTrust Bancshares to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade HomeTrust Stock refer to our How to Trade HomeTrust Stock guide.You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of HomeTrust Bancshares. Market participants price HomeTrust higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive HomeTrust Bancshares assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
The market value of HomeTrust Bancshares is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of HomeTrust that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of HomeTrust Bancshares' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is HomeTrust Bancshares' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because HomeTrust Bancshares' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect HomeTrust Bancshares' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between HomeTrust Bancshares' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if HomeTrust Bancshares is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Meanwhile, HomeTrust Bancshares' quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.