Caravelle International Stock Forward View
| HTCO Stock | USD 9.65 1.24 11.39% |
Caravelle Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Caravelle International's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Caravelle International's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Caravelle International fundamentals over time.
As of today, the value of relative strength index of Caravelle International's share price is approaching 47. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Caravelle International, making its price go up or down. Momentum 47
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.568 |
Using Caravelle International hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Caravelle International Group from the perspective of Caravelle International response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Caravelle International Group on the next trading day is expected to be 8.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.69 and the sum of the absolute errors of 42.59. Caravelle International after-hype prediction price | USD 9.65 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Caravelle | Build AI portfolio with Caravelle Stock |
Caravelle International Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Caravelle price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Caravelle using various technical indicators. When you analyze Caravelle charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Caravelle International Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Caravelle International's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 9.1 M | Current Value 7.9 M | Quarterly Volatility 3.7 M |
Caravelle International Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Caravelle International Group on the next trading day is expected to be 8.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.69, mean absolute percentage error of 0.82, and the sum of the absolute errors of 42.59.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Caravelle Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Caravelle International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Caravelle International Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Caravelle International | Caravelle International Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Caravelle International Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Caravelle International's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Caravelle International's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.44 and 17.30, respectively. We have considered Caravelle International's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Caravelle International stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Caravelle International stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.7444 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6869 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0655 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 42.5881 |
Predictive Modules for Caravelle International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Caravelle International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Caravelle International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Caravelle International After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Caravelle International at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Caravelle International or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Caravelle International, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Caravelle International Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Caravelle International's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Caravelle International's historical news coverage. Caravelle International's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.29 and 18.01, respectively. We have considered Caravelle International's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Caravelle International is relatively risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Caravelle International is based on 3 months time horizon.
Caravelle International Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Caravelle International is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Caravelle International backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Caravelle International, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.12 | 8.43 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 22 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 22 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
9.65 | 9.65 | 0.00 |
|
Caravelle International Hype Timeline
Caravelle International is currently traded for 9.65. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Caravelle is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.12%. %. The volatility of related hype on Caravelle International is about 7460.18%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 9.64. About 51.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 4.18. Caravelle International last dividend was issued on the May 13, 2014. The entity had 1:25 split on the 8th of August 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 22 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Caravelle International to cross-verify your projections.Caravelle International Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Caravelle International's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Caravelle International's future price movements. Getting to know how Caravelle International's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Caravelle International may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TORO | Toro | 0.05 | 10 per month | 2.64 | 0.10 | 7.31 | (4.44) | 48.84 | |
| VATE | Innovate Corp | (0.22) | 6 per month | 3.49 | 0.02 | 6.67 | (6.37) | 25.66 | |
| HMR | Heidmar Maritime Holdings | 0.04 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 8.11 | (6.12) | 17.52 | |
| SST | System1 | (0.22) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 8.03 | (8.31) | 26.87 | |
| DFLI | Chardan NexTech Acquisition | 0.10 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 13.98 | (17.43) | 58.61 | |
| SCWO | 374Water Common Stock | 0.07 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.01) | 19.32 | (18.87) | 45.42 | |
| MESA | MESA Old | (0.41) | 4 per month | 3.05 | 0.07 | 6.11 | (5.56) | 16.91 | |
| OMEX | Odyssey Marine Exploration | (0.22) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 9.50 | (7.77) | 26.84 | |
| ACCL | Acco Group Holdings | 0.01 | 24 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 13.24 | (10.86) | 49.01 | |
| GWH | ESS Tech | (0.33) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 6.91 | (9.24) | 61.03 |
Other Forecasting Options for Caravelle International
For every potential investor in Caravelle, whether a beginner or expert, Caravelle International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Caravelle Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Caravelle. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Caravelle International's price trends.Caravelle International Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Caravelle International stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Caravelle International could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Caravelle International by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Caravelle International Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Caravelle International stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Caravelle International shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Caravelle International stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Caravelle International Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 9932.81 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.92) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.89 | |||
| Day Median Price | 10.33 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 10.1 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.29) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.24) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 47.39 |
Caravelle International Risk Indicators
The analysis of Caravelle International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Caravelle International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting caravelle stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.19 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 7.16 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 8.33 | |||
| Variance | 69.35 | |||
| Downside Variance | 58.37 | |||
| Semi Variance | 51.25 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (5.62) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Caravelle International
The number of cover stories for Caravelle International depends on current market conditions and Caravelle International's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Caravelle International is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Caravelle International's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Caravelle International Short Properties
Caravelle International's future price predictability will typically decrease when Caravelle International's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Caravelle International Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Caravelle International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Caravelle International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 10.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Caravelle International to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world.
Will Marine Transportation sector continue expanding? Could Caravelle diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Caravelle International. Market participants price Caravelle higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Caravelle International data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Earnings Share (4.18) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.568 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
Understanding Caravelle International requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Caravelle's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Caravelle International's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Caravelle International's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Caravelle International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Caravelle International is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. In contrast, Caravelle International's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.