HOTELEST Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| HTLS Stock | 13.55 0.00 0.00% |
Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using HOTELEST hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of HOTELEST LTD from the perspective of HOTELEST response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of HOTELEST LTD on the next trading day is expected to be 13.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.67. HOTELEST after-hype prediction price | MUR 13.55 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
HOTELEST |
HOTELEST Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine HOTELEST price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for HOTELEST using various technical indicators. When you analyze HOTELEST charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
HOTELEST Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of HOTELEST LTD on the next trading day is expected to be 13.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.67.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict HOTELEST Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that HOTELEST's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
HOTELEST Stock Forecast Pattern
HOTELEST Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting HOTELEST's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. HOTELEST's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.14 and 13.96, respectively. We have considered HOTELEST's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of HOTELEST stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent HOTELEST stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 108.9833 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0114 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0114 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 8.0E-4 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.675 |
Predictive Modules for HOTELEST
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as HOTELEST LTD. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.HOTELEST Estimiated After-Hype Price Prediction Volatility
As far as predicting the price of HOTELEST at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in HOTELEST or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of HOTELEST, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
HOTELEST Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as HOTELEST is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading HOTELEST backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with HOTELEST, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
13.55 | 13.55 | 0.00 |
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HOTELEST Hype Timeline
HOTELEST LTD is currently traded for 13.55on Stock Exchange of Mauritius of Mauritius. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. HOTELEST is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.05%. %. The volatility of related hype on HOTELEST is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 13.55. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Risk vs Return Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in employment.HOTELEST Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to HOTELEST's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict HOTELEST's future price movements. Getting to know how HOTELEST's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how HOTELEST may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BAYP | BAYPORT MANAGEMENT LTD | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| NMHL-O | NEW MAURITIUS HOTELS | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.65 | (0.05) | 2.23 | (1.46) | 5.95 | |
| PBL | PHOENIX BEVERAGES LTD | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.47) | 0.00 | (0.16) | 2.07 | |
| PIM | PLASTIC INDUSTRY LTD | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.54) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.51 | |
| NITL | NATIONAL INVESTMENT TRUST | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.86 | (3.64) | 11.75 | |
| ACES | AFRICA CLEAN ENERGY | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| HTLS | HOTELEST LTD | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.32) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.21 |
Other Forecasting Options for HOTELEST
For every potential investor in HOTELEST, whether a beginner or expert, HOTELEST's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. HOTELEST Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in HOTELEST. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying HOTELEST's price trends.HOTELEST Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with HOTELEST stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of HOTELEST could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing HOTELEST by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
HOTELEST Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how HOTELEST stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading HOTELEST shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying HOTELEST stock market strength indicators, traders can identify HOTELEST LTD entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
HOTELEST Risk Indicators
The analysis of HOTELEST's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in HOTELEST's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hotelest stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.0959 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.3957 | |||
| Variance | 0.1565 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for HOTELEST
The number of cover stories for HOTELEST depends on current market conditions and HOTELEST's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that HOTELEST is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about HOTELEST's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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