HOTELEST Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

HTLS Stock   16.75  0.00  0.00%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of HOTELEST LTD on the next trading day is expected to be 16.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.00 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.00. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast HOTELEST's stock prices and determine the direction of HOTELEST LTD's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of HOTELEST's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check out Risk vs Return Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for HOTELEST - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When HOTELEST prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in HOTELEST price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of HOTELEST LTD.

HOTELEST Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of HOTELEST LTD on the next trading day is expected to be 16.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.00, mean absolute percentage error of 0.00, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.00.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict HOTELEST Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that HOTELEST's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

HOTELEST Stock Forecast Pattern

HOTELEST Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting HOTELEST's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. HOTELEST's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 16.75 and 16.75, respectively. We have considered HOTELEST's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
16.75
16.75
Expected Value
16.75
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of HOTELEST stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent HOTELEST stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0
SAESum of the absolute errors0.0
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past HOTELEST observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older HOTELEST LTD observations.

Predictive Modules for HOTELEST

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as HOTELEST LTD. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Other Forecasting Options for HOTELEST

For every potential investor in HOTELEST, whether a beginner or expert, HOTELEST's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. HOTELEST Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in HOTELEST. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying HOTELEST's price trends.

HOTELEST Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with HOTELEST stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of HOTELEST could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing HOTELEST by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

HOTELEST LTD Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of HOTELEST's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of HOTELEST's current price.

HOTELEST Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how HOTELEST stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading HOTELEST shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying HOTELEST stock market strength indicators, traders can identify HOTELEST LTD entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

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