H2O America Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| HTO Stock | 52.33 0.25 0.48% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of H2O America on the next trading day is expected to be 52.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61 and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.23. H2O Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although H2O America's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of H2O America's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of H2O America fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of H2O America's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.361 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.9733 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.14 | Wall Street Target Price 61 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.122 |
Using H2O America hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of H2O America from the perspective of H2O America response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards H2O America using H2O America's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards H2O using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of H2O America's stock price.
H2O America Short Interest
An investor who is long H2O America may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about H2O America and may potentially protect profits, hedge H2O America with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 53.1102 | Short Percent 0.0217 | Short Ratio 2.33 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.2 M | 50 Day MA 52.245 |
H2O America Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to H2O America's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in H2O. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding H2O can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around H2O America. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
H2O America Implied Volatility | 0.61 |
H2O America's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of H2O America stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if H2O America's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that H2O America stock will not fluctuate a lot when H2O America's options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of H2O America on the next trading day is expected to be 52.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61 and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.23. H2O America after-hype prediction price | USD 52.66 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of H2O America to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current H2O contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that H2O America will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0381% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With H2O America trading at USD 52.33, that is roughly USD 0.02 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating H2O America's daily price movement you should consider acquiring H2O America options at the current volatility level of 0.61%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 H2O Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast H2O America's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in H2O America's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for H2O America stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current H2O America's open interest, investors have to compare it to H2O America's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of H2O America is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in H2O. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
H2O America Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine H2O price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for H2O using various technical indicators. When you analyze H2O charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
H2O America Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of H2O America on the next trading day is expected to be 52.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61, mean absolute percentage error of 0.59, and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.23.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict H2O Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that H2O America's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
H2O America Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest H2O America | H2O America Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
H2O America Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting H2O America's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. H2O America's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 50.66 and 53.71, respectively. We have considered H2O America's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of H2O America stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent H2O America stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0674 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6141 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0128 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 36.2334 |
Predictive Modules for H2O America
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as H2O America. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of H2O America's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
H2O America After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of H2O America at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in H2O America or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of H2O America, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
H2O America Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting H2O America's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on H2O America's historical news coverage. H2O America's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 51.12 and 54.20, respectively. We have considered H2O America's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
H2O America is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of H2O America is based on 3 months time horizon.
H2O America Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as H2O America is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading H2O America backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with H2O America, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.07 | 1.53 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
52.33 | 52.66 | 0.15 |
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H2O America Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January H2O America is traded for 52.33. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. H2O is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 52.66 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 150.0%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.15%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.07%. The volatility of related hype on H2O America is about 689.19%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 52.31. The company reported the last year's revenue of 748.44 M. Total Income to common stockholders was 93.97 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 435.35 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of H2O America to cross-verify your projections.H2O America Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to H2O America's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict H2O America's future price movements. Getting to know how H2O America's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how H2O America may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EDN | Empresa Distribuidora y | (1.81) | 7 per month | 3.05 | 0.14 | 10.26 | (5.43) | 43.13 | |
| NWN | Northwest Natural Gas | 0.71 | 9 per month | 1.14 | (0.06) | 1.19 | (1.83) | 5.12 | |
| WTTR | Select Energy Services | 0.12 | 9 per month | 2.04 | 0.05 | 4.74 | (3.19) | 12.71 | |
| ELPC | Companhia Paranaense de | 0.14 | 8 per month | 2.73 | 0.09 | 4.89 | (4.17) | 13.36 | |
| CWT | California Water Service | (1.51) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.30 | (2.85) | 7.55 | |
| MSEX | Middlesex Water | 0.09 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.76 | (3.32) | 16.11 | |
| SPH | Suburban Propane Partners | (0.16) | 13 per month | 1.23 | (0.01) | 1.69 | (2.51) | 5.44 | |
| CTRI | Centuri Holdings | 0.18 | 9 per month | 1.66 | 0.16 | 4.20 | (3.20) | 16.66 | |
| HE | Hawaiian Electric Industries | (0.32) | 8 per month | 1.87 | 0.13 | 5.78 | (3.43) | 12.14 | |
| AWR | American States Water | 0.34 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.09 | (1.47) | 5.97 |
Other Forecasting Options for H2O America
For every potential investor in H2O, whether a beginner or expert, H2O America's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. H2O Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in H2O. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying H2O America's price trends.H2O America Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with H2O America stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of H2O America could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing H2O America by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
H2O America Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how H2O America stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading H2O America shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying H2O America stock market strength indicators, traders can identify H2O America entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 3007.26 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.33) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 52.35 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 52.34 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.14) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.25) |
H2O America Risk Indicators
The analysis of H2O America's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in H2O America's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting h2o stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.06 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.6 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.49 | |||
| Variance | 2.23 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.93 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.55 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.09) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for H2O America
The number of cover stories for H2O America depends on current market conditions and H2O America's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that H2O America is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about H2O America's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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H2O America Short Properties
H2O America's future price predictability will typically decrease when H2O America's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of H2O America often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential H2O America's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. H2O America's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 33.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 11.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of H2O America to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in H2O Stock, please use our How to Invest in H2O America guide.You can also try the Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Is Water Utilities space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of H2O America. If investors know H2O will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about H2O America listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.361 | Dividend Share 1.62 | Earnings Share 3 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.122 |
The market value of H2O America is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of H2O that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of H2O America's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is H2O America's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because H2O America's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect H2O America's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between H2O America's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if H2O America is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, H2O America's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.