Suburban Propane Partners Stock Price Prediction

SPH Stock  USD 21.24  1.19  5.94%   
The relative strength index (RSI) of Suburban Propane's stock price is under 64. This usually implies that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of 31st of January 2025. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Suburban, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

64

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Suburban Propane's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Suburban Propane Partners, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Suburban Propane's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.062
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.65
EPS Estimate Current Year
2.14
EPS Estimate Next Year
2.28
Wall Street Target Price
16.5
Using Suburban Propane hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Suburban Propane Partners from the perspective of Suburban Propane response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Suburban Propane using Suburban Propane's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Suburban using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Suburban Propane's stock price.

Suburban Propane Implied Volatility

    
  1.3  
Suburban Propane's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Suburban Propane Partners stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Suburban Propane's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Suburban Propane stock will not fluctuate a lot when Suburban Propane's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Suburban Propane to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Suburban because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Suburban Propane after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 21.2  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Suburban contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Suburban Propane Partners will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0813% per day over the life of the 2025-03-21 option contract. With Suburban Propane trading at USD 21.24, that is roughly USD 0.0173 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Suburban Propane's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Suburban Propane Partners options at the current volatility level of 1.3%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out Suburban Propane Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
18.7720.8923.01
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
18.6220.7422.86
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
15.0216.5018.32
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.540.540.54
Details

Suburban Propane After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Suburban Propane at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Suburban Propane or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Suburban Propane, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Suburban Propane Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Suburban Propane's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Suburban Propane's historical news coverage. Suburban Propane's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 19.08 and 23.32, respectively. We have considered Suburban Propane's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
21.24
21.20
After-hype Price
23.32
Upside
Suburban Propane is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Suburban Propane Partners is based on 3 months time horizon.

Suburban Propane Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Suburban Propane is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Suburban Propane backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Suburban Propane, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.29 
2.12
  0.04 
  0.13 
9 Events / Month
7 Events / Month
In about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
21.24
21.20
0.19 
1,413  
Notes

Suburban Propane Hype Timeline

On the 31st of January Suburban Propane Partners is traded for 21.24. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.13. Suburban is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 21.2. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.19%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.29%. The volatility of related hype on Suburban Propane is about 487.36%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 21.11. About 37.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Suburban Propane was at this time reported as 9.48. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.24. Suburban Propane Partners last dividend was issued on the 5th of November 2024. The entity had 10:1 split on the 15th of June 1999. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 9 days.
Check out Suburban Propane Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Suburban Propane Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Suburban Propane's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Suburban Propane's future price movements. Getting to know how Suburban Propane's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Suburban Propane may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
NWNNorthwest Natural Gas 0.02 8 per month 1.38 (0.05) 2.01 (2.20) 9.06 
NJRNewJersey Resources 0.08 11 per month 1.29 (0.02) 2.13 (2.27) 7.20 
ATOAtmos Energy(1.28)11 per month 1.18 (0.07) 2.06 (1.78) 5.58 
UGICUGI Corp Unit(0.86)3 per month 0.00 (0.17) 2.61 (3.02) 12.21 
CPKChesapeake Utilities 0.37 7 per month 1.53 (0.03) 2.40 (2.38) 8.69 
OGSOne Gas 1.09 9 per month 0.00 (0.09) 2.28 (2.06) 10.43 
NIMCNiSource Unit 0.44 3 per month 0.78 (0.12) 1.07 (1.11) 5.53 
RGCORGC Resources 0.17 9 per month 2.11  0  3.03 (3.59) 18.11 
SRSpire Inc(3.75)10 per month 1.67  0.04  3.15 (2.63) 9.26 
NINiSource(0.63)10 per month 1.17  0.02  2.08 (2.04) 6.69 

Suburban Propane Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Suburban price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Suburban using various technical indicators. When you analyze Suburban charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Suburban Propane Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Suburban Propane stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Suburban Propane Partners, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Suburban Propane based on analysis of Suburban Propane hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Suburban Propane's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Suburban Propane's related companies.
 2016 2022 2024 2025 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.08160.07250.08040.0764
Price To Sales Ratio0.670.860.720.82

Story Coverage note for Suburban Propane

The number of cover stories for Suburban Propane depends on current market conditions and Suburban Propane's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Suburban Propane is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Suburban Propane's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Suburban Propane Short Properties

Suburban Propane's future price predictability will typically decrease when Suburban Propane's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Suburban Propane Partners often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Suburban Propane's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Suburban Propane's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding64.8 M
Cash And Short Term Investments3.2 M

Complementary Tools for Suburban Stock analysis

When running Suburban Propane's price analysis, check to measure Suburban Propane's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Suburban Propane is operating at the current time. Most of Suburban Propane's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Suburban Propane's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Suburban Propane's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Suburban Propane to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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