Humana Etf Forecast - Naive Prediction

HUM Etf  USD 194.01  13.92  6.69%   
Humana Etf outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength momentum indicator of Humana's share price is below 30 as of now. This usually indicates that the etf is becoming oversold or undervalued. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Humana Inc, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 26

 Sell Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Humana's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Humana and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Humana's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Humana Inc, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Humana hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Humana Inc from the perspective of Humana response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Humana Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 191.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.61 and the sum of the absolute errors of 403.17.

Humana after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 194.01  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Humana to cross-verify your projections.

Humana Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Humana price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Humana using various technical indicators. When you analyze Humana charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Humana is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Humana Inc value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Humana Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Humana Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 191.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.61, mean absolute percentage error of 74.38, and the sum of the absolute errors of 403.17.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Humana Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Humana's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Humana Etf Forecast Pattern

Backtest Humana  Humana Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Humana Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Humana's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Humana's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 187.57 and 194.93, respectively. We have considered Humana's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
194.01
187.57
Downside
191.25
Expected Value
194.93
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Humana etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Humana etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria122.4196
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation6.6094
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0263
SAESum of the absolute errors403.1727
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Humana Inc. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Humana. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Humana

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Humana Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Humana's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
190.33194.01197.69
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
189.74193.42197.10
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
222.24263.15304.05
Details

Humana After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Humana at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Humana or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of Humana, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Humana Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Humana's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Humana's historical news coverage. Humana's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 190.33 and 197.69, respectively. We have considered Humana's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
194.01
190.33
Downside
194.01
After-hype Price
197.69
Upside
Humana is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Humana Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.

Humana Etf Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as Humana is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Humana backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Humana, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.55 
3.68
 0.00  
  0.71 
0 Events / Month
4 Events / Month
In a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
194.01
194.01
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Humana Hype Timeline

On the 28th of January Humana Inc is traded for 194.01. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.71. Humana is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.55%. %. The volatility of related hype on Humana is about 286.83%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 193.30. About 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.71. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Humana Inc has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.08. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 10.69. The firm last dividend was issued on the 26th of December 2025. Humana had 3:2 split on the 1st of August 1991. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in a few days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Humana to cross-verify your projections.

Humana Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Humana's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Humana's future price movements. Getting to know how Humana's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Humana may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Humana

For every potential investor in Humana, whether a beginner or expert, Humana's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Humana Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Humana. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Humana's price trends.

Humana Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Humana etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Humana could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Humana by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Humana Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Humana etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Humana shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Humana etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Humana Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Humana Risk Indicators

The analysis of Humana's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Humana's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting humana etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Humana

The number of cover stories for Humana depends on current market conditions and Humana's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Humana is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Humana's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Humana Short Properties

Humana's future price predictability will typically decrease when Humana's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Humana Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Humana's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Humana's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding120.9 M
Cash And Short Term Investments2.2 B

Other Information on Investing in Humana Etf

Humana financial ratios help investors to determine whether Humana Etf is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Humana with respect to the benefits of owning Humana security.