IShares Gold Etf Forward View
| IAU Etf | USD 90.53 2.39 2.57% |
IShares Etf outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength momentum indicator of IShares Gold's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the etf is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using IShares Gold hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of iShares Gold Trust from the perspective of IShares Gold response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards IShares Gold using IShares Gold's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards IShares using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of IShares Gold's stock price.
IShares Gold Implied Volatility | 0.3 |
IShares Gold's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of iShares Gold Trust stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if IShares Gold's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that IShares Gold stock will not fluctuate a lot when IShares Gold's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of iShares Gold Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 86.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 78.42. IShares Gold after-hype prediction price | USD 90.44 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of IShares Gold to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current IShares contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that iShares Gold Trust will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0188% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With IShares Gold trading at USD 90.53, that is roughly USD 0.017 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating IShares Gold's daily price movement you should consider acquiring iShares Gold Trust options at the current volatility level of 0.3%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-05-15 IShares Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast IShares Gold's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in IShares Gold's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for IShares Gold stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current IShares Gold's open interest, investors have to compare it to IShares Gold's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of IShares Gold is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in IShares. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
IShares Gold Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine IShares price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for IShares using various technical indicators. When you analyze IShares charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
IShares Gold Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 8th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of iShares Gold Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 86.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.29, mean absolute percentage error of 4.00, and the sum of the absolute errors of 78.42.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict IShares Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that IShares Gold's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
IShares Gold Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest IShares Gold | IShares Gold Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
IShares Gold Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting IShares Gold's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. IShares Gold's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 84.35 and 88.56, respectively. We have considered IShares Gold's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of IShares Gold etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent IShares Gold etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.4972 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.2856 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0148 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 78.4225 |
Predictive Modules for IShares Gold
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as iShares Gold Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.IShares Gold After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of IShares Gold at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in IShares Gold or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of IShares Gold, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
IShares Gold Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting IShares Gold's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on IShares Gold's historical news coverage. IShares Gold's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 88.33 and 92.55, respectively. We have considered IShares Gold's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
IShares Gold is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of iShares Gold Trust is based on 3 months time horizon.
IShares Gold Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as IShares Gold is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading IShares Gold backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with IShares Gold, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.28 | 2.11 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 9 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
90.53 | 90.44 | 0.10 |
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IShares Gold Hype Timeline
On the 7th of February iShares Gold Trust is traded for 90.53. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.09, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. IShares is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 90.44. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.1%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.28%. The volatility of related hype on IShares Gold is about 1076.53%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 90.58. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of IShares Gold to cross-verify your projections.IShares Gold Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to IShares Gold's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict IShares Gold's future price movements. Getting to know how IShares Gold's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how IShares Gold may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| VPMAX | Vanguard Primecap Fund | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.36 | 0.15 | 1.84 | (1.57) | 18.25 | |
| VEU | Vanguard FTSE All World | 0.34 | 5 per month | 0.63 | 0.08 | 1.28 | (1.24) | 3.10 | |
| VFWAX | Vanguard Ftse All World | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.58 | 0.08 | 1.27 | (1.26) | 2.98 | |
| XLK | Technology Select Sector | 0.64 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.16 | (2.64) | 5.69 | |
| RSP | Invesco SP 500 | (0.25) | 9 per month | 0.53 | 0.05 | 1.42 | (1.13) | 3.45 | |
| ITOT | iShares Core SP | (0.12) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.09 | (1.27) | 3.51 | |
| SCHD | Schwab Dividend Equity | 0.33 | 10 per month | 0.00 | 0.25 | 1.67 | (0.85) | 2.87 | |
| VT | Vanguard Total World | 1.02 | 9 per month | 0.72 | (0.02) | 1.17 | (1.25) | 3.11 | |
| VTWAX | Vanguard Total World | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.71 | (0.02) | 1.09 | (1.29) | 3.11 | |
| VHYAX | Vanguard High Dividend | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.43 | 0.12 | 1.18 | (1.14) | 3.01 |
Other Forecasting Options for IShares Gold
For every potential investor in IShares, whether a beginner or expert, IShares Gold's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. IShares Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in IShares. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying IShares Gold's price trends.IShares Gold Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with IShares Gold etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of IShares Gold could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing IShares Gold by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
IShares Gold Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how IShares Gold etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading IShares Gold shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying IShares Gold etf market strength indicators, traders can identify iShares Gold Trust entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
IShares Gold Risk Indicators
The analysis of IShares Gold's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in IShares Gold's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ishares etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.23 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.18 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.06 | |||
| Variance | 4.26 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.13 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.76 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.29) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for IShares Gold
The number of cover stories for IShares Gold depends on current market conditions and IShares Gold's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that IShares Gold is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about IShares Gold's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of IShares Gold to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..
The market value of iShares Gold Trust is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of IShares that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of IShares Gold's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is IShares Gold's true underlying value. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. Because IShares Gold's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect IShares Gold's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between IShares Gold's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if IShares Gold is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Meanwhile, IShares Gold's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.