Ivanhoe Energy Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| IE Stock | 26.11 1.52 6.18% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Ivanhoe Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 24.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 66.06. Ivanhoe Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Ivanhoe Energy's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Ivanhoe Energy's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Ivanhoe Energy fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength momentum indicator of Ivanhoe Energy's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.37) | EPS Estimate Current Year (1.02) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.72) | Wall Street Target Price 32 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.29) |
Using Ivanhoe Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ivanhoe Energy from the perspective of Ivanhoe Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Ivanhoe Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 24.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 66.06. Ivanhoe Energy after-hype prediction price | CAD 26.18 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Ivanhoe |
Ivanhoe Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ivanhoe price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ivanhoe using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ivanhoe charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ivanhoe Energy Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Ivanhoe Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 24.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.07, mean absolute percentage error of 1.93, and the sum of the absolute errors of 66.06.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ivanhoe Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ivanhoe Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ivanhoe Energy Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ivanhoe Energy | Ivanhoe Energy Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Ivanhoe Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ivanhoe Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ivanhoe Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 19.95 and 29.33, respectively. We have considered Ivanhoe Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ivanhoe Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ivanhoe Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.6059 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0654 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0539 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 66.0574 |
Predictive Modules for Ivanhoe Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ivanhoe Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ivanhoe Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ivanhoe Energy After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ivanhoe Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ivanhoe Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ivanhoe Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ivanhoe Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ivanhoe Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ivanhoe Energy's historical news coverage. Ivanhoe Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 21.49 and 30.87, respectively. We have considered Ivanhoe Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ivanhoe Energy is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ivanhoe Energy is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ivanhoe Energy Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ivanhoe Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ivanhoe Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ivanhoe Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.47 | 4.69 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 3 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 3 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
26.11 | 26.18 | 0.27 |
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Ivanhoe Energy Hype Timeline
Ivanhoe Energy is currently traded for 26.11on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. Ivanhoe is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 26.18 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is estimated to be 0.27%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.47%. The volatility of related hype on Ivanhoe Energy is about 4225.23%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 26.16. The company reported the revenue of 2.9 M. Net Loss for the year was (140.27 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.36 M. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 3 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ivanhoe Energy to cross-verify your projections.Ivanhoe Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ivanhoe Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ivanhoe Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how Ivanhoe Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ivanhoe Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MAU | Montage Gold Corp | (0.04) | 9 per month | 2.27 | 0.21 | 6.54 | (4.62) | 13.13 | |
| AAUC | Allied Gold | (0.49) | 9 per month | 3.35 | 0.18 | 6.26 | (5.05) | 15.55 | |
| TKO | Taseko Mines | 0.01 | 10 per month | 2.50 | 0.23 | 6.34 | (4.16) | 17.43 | |
| SKE | Skeena Resources | 0.02 | 3 per month | 2.73 | 0.20 | 5.60 | (3.54) | 12.89 | |
| ERO | Ero Copper Corp | 0.02 | 4 per month | 2.44 | 0.14 | 4.74 | (3.76) | 11.41 | |
| ARIS | Aris Mining | (0.01) | 10 per month | 2.64 | 0.27 | 6.38 | (3.84) | 14.23 | |
| AII | Almonty Industries | 0.23 | 7 per month | 4.35 | 0.05 | 9.41 | (7.62) | 20.82 | |
| CIA | Champion Iron | 0.04 | 7 per month | 1.21 | 0.19 | 4.31 | (2.47) | 15.06 | |
| AYA | Aya Gold Silver | 1.10 | 9 per month | 4.19 | 0.11 | 8.53 | (5.59) | 18.97 | |
| LAC | Lithium Americas Corp | 0.23 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 7.03 | (6.38) | 14.29 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ivanhoe Energy
For every potential investor in Ivanhoe, whether a beginner or expert, Ivanhoe Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ivanhoe Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ivanhoe. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ivanhoe Energy's price trends.Ivanhoe Energy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ivanhoe Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ivanhoe Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ivanhoe Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ivanhoe Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ivanhoe Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ivanhoe Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ivanhoe Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ivanhoe Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 1857.9 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 1.225806 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.06 | |||
| Day Median Price | 25.98 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 26.02 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.89 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 1.52 |
Ivanhoe Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ivanhoe Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ivanhoe Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ivanhoe stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.78 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.13 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.71 | |||
| Variance | 22.16 | |||
| Downside Variance | 18.35 | |||
| Semi Variance | 17.03 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.28) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ivanhoe Energy
The number of cover stories for Ivanhoe Energy depends on current market conditions and Ivanhoe Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ivanhoe Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ivanhoe Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ivanhoe Energy Short Properties
Ivanhoe Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ivanhoe Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ivanhoe Energy often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ivanhoe Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ivanhoe Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 120.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 41 M |
Other Information on Investing in Ivanhoe Stock
Ivanhoe Energy financial ratios help investors to determine whether Ivanhoe Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Ivanhoe with respect to the benefits of owning Ivanhoe Energy security.