Illinois Tool Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

ILT Stock  EUR 223.60  5.90  2.71%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Illinois Tool Works on the next trading day is expected to be 223.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.91 and the sum of the absolute errors of 116.76. Illinois Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Illinois Tool's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 23rd of January 2026 the value of rsi of Illinois Tool's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Illinois Tool's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Illinois Tool and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Illinois Tool's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Illinois Tool Works, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Illinois Tool hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Illinois Tool Works from the perspective of Illinois Tool response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Illinois Tool Works on the next trading day is expected to be 223.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.91 and the sum of the absolute errors of 116.76.

Illinois Tool after-hype prediction price

    
  EUR 223.6  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Illinois Tool to cross-verify your projections.

Illinois Tool Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Illinois price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Illinois using various technical indicators. When you analyze Illinois charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Illinois Tool simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Illinois Tool Works are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Illinois Tool Works prices get older.

Illinois Tool Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Illinois Tool Works on the next trading day is expected to be 223.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.91, mean absolute percentage error of 7.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 116.76.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Illinois Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Illinois Tool's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Illinois Tool Stock Forecast Pattern

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Illinois Tool Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Illinois Tool's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Illinois Tool's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 222.26 and 224.35, respectively. We have considered Illinois Tool's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
223.60
222.26
Downside
223.31
Expected Value
224.35
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Illinois Tool stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Illinois Tool stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.0583
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.1122
MADMean absolute deviation1.9141
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0089
SAESum of the absolute errors116.7575
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Illinois Tool Works forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Illinois Tool observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Illinois Tool

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Illinois Tool Works. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
222.55223.60224.65
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
183.93184.98245.96
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
206.30215.06223.81
Details

Illinois Tool After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Illinois Tool at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Illinois Tool or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Illinois Tool, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Illinois Tool Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Illinois Tool's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Illinois Tool's historical news coverage. Illinois Tool's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 222.55 and 224.65, respectively. We have considered Illinois Tool's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
223.60
222.55
Downside
223.60
After-hype Price
224.65
Upside
Illinois Tool is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Illinois Tool Works is based on 3 months time horizon.

Illinois Tool Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Illinois Tool is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Illinois Tool backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Illinois Tool, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.11 
1.05
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Uncertain
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
223.60
223.60
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Illinois Tool Hype Timeline

Illinois Tool Works is currently traded for 223.60on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Illinois is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.11%. %. The volatility of related hype on Illinois Tool is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 223.60. About 82.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.3. Illinois Tool Works recorded earning per share (EPS) of 9.21. The entity last dividend was issued on the 30th of March 2023. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be uncertain.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Illinois Tool to cross-verify your projections.

Illinois Tool Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Illinois Tool's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Illinois Tool's future price movements. Getting to know how Illinois Tool's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Illinois Tool may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Illinois Tool

For every potential investor in Illinois, whether a beginner or expert, Illinois Tool's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Illinois Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Illinois. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Illinois Tool's price trends.

Illinois Tool Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Illinois Tool stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Illinois Tool could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Illinois Tool by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Illinois Tool Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Illinois Tool stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Illinois Tool shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Illinois Tool stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Illinois Tool Works entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Illinois Tool Risk Indicators

The analysis of Illinois Tool's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Illinois Tool's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting illinois stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Illinois Tool

The number of cover stories for Illinois Tool depends on current market conditions and Illinois Tool's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Illinois Tool is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Illinois Tool's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Illinois Stock

When determining whether Illinois Tool Works is a strong investment it is important to analyze Illinois Tool's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Illinois Tool's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Illinois Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Illinois Tool to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Illinois Tool's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Illinois Tool is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Illinois Tool's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.