Imperial Oil Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| IMO Stock | USD 114.58 0.24 0.21% |
Imperial Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Imperial Oil's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Imperial Oil's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Imperial Oil fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Imperial Oil's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.58) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.4014 | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.7435 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.4946 | Wall Street Target Price 78.5847 |
Using Imperial Oil hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Imperial Oil from the perspective of Imperial Oil response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Imperial Oil using Imperial Oil's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Imperial using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Imperial Oil's stock price.
Imperial Oil Short Interest
An investor who is long Imperial Oil may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Imperial Oil and may potentially protect profits, hedge Imperial Oil with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 86.4011 | Short Percent 0.1412 | Short Ratio 26.92 | Shares Short Prior Month 19.8 M | 50 Day MA 94.5072 |
Imperial Relative Strength Index
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Imperial Oil on the next trading day is expected to be 115.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 91.25.Imperial Oil Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Imperial Oil's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Imperial. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Imperial can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Imperial Oil. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Imperial Oil's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Imperial Oil.
Imperial Oil Implied Volatility | 0.39 |
Imperial Oil's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Imperial Oil stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Imperial Oil's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Imperial Oil stock will not fluctuate a lot when Imperial Oil's options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Imperial Oil on the next trading day is expected to be 115.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 91.25. Imperial Oil after-hype prediction price | USD 113.96 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Imperial Oil to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Imperial contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Imperial Oil will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0244% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With Imperial Oil trading at USD 114.58, that is roughly USD 0.0279 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Imperial Oil's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Imperial Oil options at the current volatility level of 0.39%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-05-15 Imperial Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Imperial Oil's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Imperial Oil's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Imperial Oil stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Imperial Oil's open interest, investors have to compare it to Imperial Oil's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Imperial Oil is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Imperial. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Imperial Oil Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Imperial price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Imperial using various technical indicators. When you analyze Imperial charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Imperial Oil Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 12th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Imperial Oil on the next trading day is expected to be 115.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.52, mean absolute percentage error of 3.68, and the sum of the absolute errors of 91.25.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Imperial Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Imperial Oil's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Imperial Oil Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Imperial Oil | Imperial Oil Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Imperial Oil Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Imperial Oil's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Imperial Oil's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 113.61 and 117.56, respectively. We have considered Imperial Oil's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Imperial Oil stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Imperial Oil stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.3232 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.5209 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0157 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 91.2537 |
Predictive Modules for Imperial Oil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Imperial Oil. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Imperial Oil After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Imperial Oil at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Imperial Oil or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Imperial Oil, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Imperial Oil Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Imperial Oil's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Imperial Oil's historical news coverage. Imperial Oil's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 111.98 and 115.94, respectively. We have considered Imperial Oil's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Imperial Oil is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Imperial Oil is based on 3 months time horizon.
Imperial Oil Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Imperial Oil is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Imperial Oil backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Imperial Oil, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.32 | 1.98 | 0.49 | 0.01 | 10 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
114.58 | 113.96 | 0.19 |
|
Imperial Oil Hype Timeline
On the 11th of February 2026 Imperial Oil is traded for 114.58. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.49, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Imperial is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 113.96 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 129.41%. The price boost on the next news is forecasted to be 0.19%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.32%. The volatility of related hype on Imperial Oil is about 5657.14%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 114.57. The company reported the last year's revenue of 47.04 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 3.27 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 8.29 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Imperial Oil to cross-verify your projections.Imperial Oil Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Imperial Oil's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Imperial Oil's future price movements. Getting to know how Imperial Oil's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Imperial Oil may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BP | BP PLC ADR | 0.08 | 10 per month | 2.07 | (0.0007) | 2.76 | (3.76) | 8.04 | |
| SHEL | Shell PLC ADR | 0.06 | 10 per month | 1.43 | (0) | 2.51 | (2.18) | 8.28 | |
| PBR | Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras | (0.28) | 10 per month | 1.30 | 0.17 | 3.70 | (2.02) | 11.62 | |
| PBR-A | Petrleo Brasileiro SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.56 | 0.15 | 4.21 | (2.07) | 10.67 |
Other Forecasting Options for Imperial Oil
For every potential investor in Imperial, whether a beginner or expert, Imperial Oil's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Imperial Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Imperial. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Imperial Oil's price trends.Imperial Oil Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Imperial Oil stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Imperial Oil could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Imperial Oil by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Imperial Oil Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Imperial Oil stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Imperial Oil shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Imperial Oil stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Imperial Oil entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 6329.87 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.0968 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 113.72 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 114.01 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.98 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.24 |
Imperial Oil Risk Indicators
The analysis of Imperial Oil's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Imperial Oil's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting imperial stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.51 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.55 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.94 | |||
| Variance | 3.76 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.99 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.41 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.61) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Imperial Oil
The number of cover stories for Imperial Oil depends on current market conditions and Imperial Oil's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Imperial Oil is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Imperial Oil's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
Story Categories
Currently Trending Categories
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Imperial Oil to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Imperial Stock, please use our How to Invest in Imperial Oil guide.You can also try the Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.
Will Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels sector continue expanding? Could Imperial diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Imperial Oil. Market participants price Imperial higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Imperial Oil data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.58) | Dividend Share 2.88 | Earnings Share 4.75 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.11) |
Imperial Oil's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Imperial's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Imperial Oil's intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Since Imperial Oil's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Imperial Oil's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Imperial Oil is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Imperial Oil's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.