Imperial Oil Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| IMO Stock | USD 132.95 2.48 1.90% |
This Triple Exponential Smoothing projection for Imperial Oil is fitted to the equity's recent daily closes. Low error metrics relative to the price level indicate the model fits recent trading behavior well. The Triple Exponential Smoothing model projects Imperial Oil at 133.07 for the next trading day, above the most recent closing price. This forecast is one analytical input among many and should be assessed in the context of broader analysis.
Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 7th of May
Over a 90-day horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing model forecasts Imperial Oil at 133.07 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 1.67 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and sum of absolute errors of 98.48 .This represents a very tight forecast — the model closely tracks Imperial Oil's recent price behavior. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Imperial Oil | Imperial Oil Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The projected range for Imperial Oil reflects the model's ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios for the next trading day. Downside is estimated near 131.33 and upside near 134.80. The narrow range indicates limited short-term dispersion.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the Triple Exponential Smoothing model's error metrics for Imperial Oil stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1113 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.6691 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0134 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 98.4784 |
Other Forecasting Options for Imperial Oil
The autocorrelation structure of Imperial Oil's daily returns reveals whether Imperial Oil exhibits momentum, mean-reversion, or random-walk behavior. Separating these elements distinguishes persistent directional moves from temporary noise in Imperial Oil Stock price data.Imperial Oil Related Equities
These firms work in a similar space as Imperial Oil within the Energy space and serve as useful points for comparison. Revenue and margin checks across this group help investors set expectations for Imperial Oil's results. Peer review is most informative when paired with absolute pricing and trend checks. These checks provide a starting point for deeper study of Imperial Oil's strengths and weak spots.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Imperial Oil Market Strength Events
Rate of Change and Momentum readings for Imperial Oil measure the velocity of recent price moves rather than direction alone. These indicators add context to how recent sessions in Imperial Oil have behaved.
Imperial Oil Risk Indicators
Standard deviation and variance for Imperial Oil measure total price dispersion, while semi-deviation isolates only the downside moves. Higher variance relative to sector peers signals that Imperial Oil's price path has been less predictable over the measured period.
| Mean Deviation | 1.38 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.67 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.74 | |||
| Variance | 3.02 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.62 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.8 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.46 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Imperial Oil Short Properties
Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Imperial Oil is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. This is applicable when the question is whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 504 million | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.14 billion |