IRSA Inversiones Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

IRS Stock  USD 16.58  0.22  1.31%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of IRSA Inversiones Y on the next trading day is expected to be 16.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.35. IRSA Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of IRSA Inversiones' share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of IRSA Inversiones' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of IRSA Inversiones and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from IRSA Inversiones' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with IRSA Inversiones Y, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting IRSA Inversiones' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.123
EPS Estimate Current Year
0.133
EPS Estimate Next Year
0.145
Wall Street Target Price
20.5
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.03)
Using IRSA Inversiones hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of IRSA Inversiones Y from the perspective of IRSA Inversiones response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards IRSA Inversiones using IRSA Inversiones' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards IRSA using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of IRSA Inversiones' stock price.

IRSA Inversiones Implied Volatility

    
  0.88  
IRSA Inversiones' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of IRSA Inversiones Y stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if IRSA Inversiones' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that IRSA Inversiones stock will not fluctuate a lot when IRSA Inversiones' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of IRSA Inversiones Y on the next trading day is expected to be 16.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.35.

IRSA Inversiones after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 16.56  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of IRSA Inversiones to cross-verify your projections.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current IRSA contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that IRSA Inversiones Y will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.055% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With IRSA Inversiones trading at USD 16.58, that is roughly USD 0.009119 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating IRSA Inversiones' daily price movement you should consider acquiring IRSA Inversiones Y options at the current volatility level of 0.88%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.

Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 IRSA Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast IRSA Inversiones' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in IRSA Inversiones' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for IRSA Inversiones stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current IRSA Inversiones' open interest, investors have to compare it to IRSA Inversiones' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of IRSA Inversiones is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in IRSA. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

IRSA Inversiones Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine IRSA price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for IRSA using various technical indicators. When you analyze IRSA charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the IRSA Inversiones' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
1998-03-31
Previous Quarter
176.8 B
Current Value
36.7 B
Quarterly Volatility
35.8 B
 
Dot-com Bubble
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for IRSA Inversiones is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of IRSA Inversiones Y value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

IRSA Inversiones Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of IRSA Inversiones Y on the next trading day is expected to be 16.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27, mean absolute percentage error of 0.11, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.35.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict IRSA Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that IRSA Inversiones' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

IRSA Inversiones Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest IRSA InversionesIRSA Inversiones Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

IRSA Inversiones Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting IRSA Inversiones' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. IRSA Inversiones' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.79 and 18.30, respectively. We have considered IRSA Inversiones' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
16.58
16.05
Expected Value
18.30
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of IRSA Inversiones stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent IRSA Inversiones stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.9426
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.268
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0178
SAESum of the absolute errors16.3503
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of IRSA Inversiones Y. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict IRSA Inversiones. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for IRSA Inversiones

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as IRSA Inversiones Y. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
14.3116.5618.81
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
14.9219.5721.82
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
14.6815.9817.27
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
18.6620.5022.76
Details

IRSA Inversiones After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of IRSA Inversiones at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in IRSA Inversiones or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of IRSA Inversiones, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

IRSA Inversiones Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting IRSA Inversiones' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on IRSA Inversiones' historical news coverage. IRSA Inversiones' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 14.31 and 18.81, respectively. We have considered IRSA Inversiones' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
16.58
16.56
After-hype Price
18.81
Upside
IRSA Inversiones is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of IRSA Inversiones Y is based on 3 months time horizon.

IRSA Inversiones Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as IRSA Inversiones is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading IRSA Inversiones backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with IRSA Inversiones, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.30 
2.25
  0.02 
  0.07 
23 Events / Month
7 Events / Month
In about 23 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
16.58
16.56
0.12 
4,500  
Notes

IRSA Inversiones Hype Timeline

On the 25th of January IRSA Inversiones Y is traded for 16.58. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.07. IRSA is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 16.56. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.12%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.3%. The volatility of related hype on IRSA Inversiones is about 986.84%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 16.51. About 18.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.0. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. IRSA Inversiones Y last dividend was issued on the 24th of November 2025. The entity had 907:1000 split on the 3rd of October 2023. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 23 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of IRSA Inversiones to cross-verify your projections.

IRSA Inversiones Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to IRSA Inversiones' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict IRSA Inversiones' future price movements. Getting to know how IRSA Inversiones' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how IRSA Inversiones may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
TUSKMammoth Energy Services 0.1 10 per month 3.01  0.03  7.35 (4.84) 27.95 
MATHMetalpha Technology Holding(0.04)9 per month 0.00 (0.11) 7.94 (6.21) 20.85 
ESPEspey Mfg Electronics(0.82)7 per month 1.62  0.23  4.38 (2.73) 10.00 
NNBRNN Inc(0.02)9 per month 0.00 (0.07) 5.49 (5.59) 21.64 
SNTSenstar Technologies(1.53)8 per month 5.04  0  8.66 (7.90) 32.07 
HURCHurco Companies(1.53)4 per month 0.00 (0.1) 3.10 (3.44) 11.27 
HQIHirequest 0.24 11 per month 2.58  0.11  8.40 (4.99) 23.30 
OPXSOptex Systems Holdings 0.27 8 per month 4.13 (0.01) 6.67 (6.88) 20.79 
RITRReitar Logtech Holdings 1.03 25 per month 0.00 (0.05) 14.95 (9.70) 39.01 
MIMIMint Incorporation Limited 0.02 6 per month 0.00 (0.22) 15.63 (18.75) 96.53 

Other Forecasting Options for IRSA Inversiones

For every potential investor in IRSA, whether a beginner or expert, IRSA Inversiones' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. IRSA Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in IRSA. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying IRSA Inversiones' price trends.

IRSA Inversiones Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with IRSA Inversiones stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of IRSA Inversiones could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing IRSA Inversiones by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

IRSA Inversiones Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how IRSA Inversiones stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading IRSA Inversiones shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying IRSA Inversiones stock market strength indicators, traders can identify IRSA Inversiones Y entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

IRSA Inversiones Risk Indicators

The analysis of IRSA Inversiones' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in IRSA Inversiones' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting irsa stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for IRSA Inversiones

The number of cover stories for IRSA Inversiones depends on current market conditions and IRSA Inversiones' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that IRSA Inversiones is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about IRSA Inversiones' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

IRSA Inversiones Short Properties

IRSA Inversiones' future price predictability will typically decrease when IRSA Inversiones' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of IRSA Inversiones Y often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential IRSA Inversiones' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. IRSA Inversiones' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding81.7 M
Cash And Short Term Investments186.1 B

Additional Tools for IRSA Stock Analysis

When running IRSA Inversiones' price analysis, check to measure IRSA Inversiones' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy IRSA Inversiones is operating at the current time. Most of IRSA Inversiones' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of IRSA Inversiones' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move IRSA Inversiones' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of IRSA Inversiones to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.