Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| IRWD Stock | USD 5.23 0.16 2.97% |
Ironwood Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Ironwood Pharmaceuticals stock prices and determine the direction of Ironwood Pharmaceuticals's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The value of RSI of Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' share price is above 70 at the present time. This usually indicates that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Ironwood, making its price go up or down. Momentum 70
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Ironwood Pharmaceuticals hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ironwood Pharmaceuticals from the perspective of Ironwood Pharmaceuticals response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Ironwood Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 4.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.78. Ironwood Pharmaceuticals after-hype prediction price | USD 5.23 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ironwood Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections. Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ironwood price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ironwood using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ironwood charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Ironwood Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 4.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37, mean absolute percentage error of 0.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.78.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ironwood Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ironwood Pharmaceuticals | Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.05 and 13.17, respectively. We have considered Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ironwood Pharmaceuticals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ironwood Pharmaceuticals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.443 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3734 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.1245 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 22.7801 |
Predictive Modules for Ironwood Pharmaceuticals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ironwood Pharmaceuticals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ironwood Pharmaceuticals After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ironwood Pharmaceuticals at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ironwood Pharmaceuticals or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' historical news coverage. Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.26 and 13.52, respectively. We have considered Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ironwood Pharmaceuticals is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ironwood Pharmaceuticals is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ironwood Pharmaceuticals is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ironwood Pharmaceuticals backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
2.20 | 8.29 | 1.32 | 0.24 | 7 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
5.23 | 5.23 | 0.00 |
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Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Hype Timeline
Ironwood Pharmaceuticals is currently traded for 5.23. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -1.32, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.24. Ironwood is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 2.2%. %. The volatility of related hype on Ironwood Pharmaceuticals is about 7468.47%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.47. About 93.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company last dividend was issued on the 2nd of April 1970. Ironwood Pharmaceuticals had 1194:1000 split on the 2nd of April 2019. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ironwood Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections.Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. Getting to know how Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ironwood Pharmaceuticals may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CGC | Canopy Growth Corp | (0.07) | 18 per month | 4.94 | 0.01 | 8.55 | (9.16) | 66.41 | |
| TKNO | Alpha Teknova | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 4.75 | (6.50) | 19.09 | |
| LFCR | Lifecore Biomedical | 1.36 | 9 per month | 2.06 | 0.12 | 6.17 | (4.01) | 15.24 | |
| ACB | Aurora Cannabis | (0.20) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.56 | (5.19) | 26.49 | |
| BIOA | BioAge Labs | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.68 | 0.25 | 13.88 | (6.06) | 33.50 | |
| GNLX | Genelux Common | (0.11) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 6.90 | (11.87) | 54.58 | |
| NPCE | Neuropace | 0.02 | 16 per month | 2.05 | 0.14 | 6.30 | (4.61) | 43.20 | |
| ALDX | Aldeyra | 0.23 | 7 per month | 4.47 | 0 | 6.27 | (8.84) | 42.93 | |
| SLN | Silence Therapeutics PLC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 6.88 | (5.28) | 22.91 | |
| CLLS | Cellectis SA | (0.12) | 9 per month | 4.21 | 0.04 | 9.24 | (6.84) | 29.31 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ironwood Pharmaceuticals
For every potential investor in Ironwood, whether a beginner or expert, Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ironwood Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ironwood. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' price trends.Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ironwood Pharmaceuticals stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ironwood Pharmaceuticals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ironwood Pharmaceuticals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ironwood Pharmaceuticals stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ironwood Pharmaceuticals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ironwood Pharmaceuticals stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ironwood Pharmaceuticals entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ironwood stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.57 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.95 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 8.29 | |||
| Variance | 68.68 | |||
| Downside Variance | 15.37 | |||
| Semi Variance | 8.69 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (8.29) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ironwood Pharmaceuticals
The number of cover stories for Ironwood Pharmaceuticals depends on current market conditions and Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ironwood Pharmaceuticals is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Short Properties
Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' future price predictability will typically decrease when Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ironwood Pharmaceuticals often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 160.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 88.6 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ironwood Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Ironwood Stock refer to our How to Trade Ironwood Stock guide.You can also try the Stock Screener module to find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ironwood Pharmaceuticals. If investors know Ironwood will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ironwood Pharmaceuticals listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Ironwood Pharmaceuticals is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ironwood that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ironwood Pharmaceuticals is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.