JAKKS Pacific Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| JAKK Stock | USD 19.00 0.18 0.94% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of JAKKS Pacific on the next trading day is expected to be 19.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.59. JAKKS Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although JAKKS Pacific's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of JAKKS Pacific's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of JAKKS Pacific fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of JAKKS Pacific's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.62) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.98) | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.84 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.77 | Wall Street Target Price 28.5 |
Using JAKKS Pacific hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of JAKKS Pacific from the perspective of JAKKS Pacific response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards JAKKS Pacific using JAKKS Pacific's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards JAKKS using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of JAKKS Pacific's stock price.
JAKKS Pacific Short Interest
An investor who is long JAKKS Pacific may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about JAKKS Pacific and may potentially protect profits, hedge JAKKS Pacific with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 18.5737 | Short Percent 0.0627 | Short Ratio 5.95 | Shares Short Prior Month 547.9 K | 50 Day MA 17.0434 |
JAKKS Pacific Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to JAKKS Pacific's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in JAKKS. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding JAKKS can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around JAKKS Pacific. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
JAKKS Pacific Implied Volatility | 0.85 |
JAKKS Pacific's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of JAKKS Pacific stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if JAKKS Pacific's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that JAKKS Pacific stock will not fluctuate a lot when JAKKS Pacific's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of JAKKS Pacific on the next trading day is expected to be 19.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.59. JAKKS Pacific after-hype prediction price | USD 18.98 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of JAKKS Pacific to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current JAKKS contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that JAKKS Pacific will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0531% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With JAKKS Pacific trading at USD 19.0, that is roughly USD 0.0101 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating JAKKS Pacific's daily price movement you should consider acquiring JAKKS Pacific options at the current volatility level of 0.85%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 JAKKS Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast JAKKS Pacific's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in JAKKS Pacific's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for JAKKS Pacific stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current JAKKS Pacific's open interest, investors have to compare it to JAKKS Pacific's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of JAKKS Pacific is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in JAKKS. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
JAKKS Pacific Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine JAKKS price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for JAKKS using various technical indicators. When you analyze JAKKS charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
JAKKS Pacific Cash Forecast
To forecast cash or other financial indicators, analysts must employ diverse statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. This approach allows them to detect underlying patterns in the JAKKS Pacific's financial statements, predicting their influence on future market prices.
Cash | First Reported 1996-03-31 | Previous Quarter 38.2 M | Current Value 25.9 M | Quarterly Volatility 76.5 M |
JAKKS Pacific Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of JAKKS Pacific on the next trading day is expected to be 19.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37, mean absolute percentage error of 0.21, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.59.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict JAKKS Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that JAKKS Pacific's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
JAKKS Pacific Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest JAKKS Pacific | JAKKS Pacific Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
JAKKS Pacific Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting JAKKS Pacific's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. JAKKS Pacific's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 16.77 and 21.59, respectively. We have considered JAKKS Pacific's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of JAKKS Pacific stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent JAKKS Pacific stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.5678 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3703 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0221 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 22.5872 |
Predictive Modules for JAKKS Pacific
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as JAKKS Pacific. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.JAKKS Pacific After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of JAKKS Pacific at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in JAKKS Pacific or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of JAKKS Pacific, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
JAKKS Pacific Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting JAKKS Pacific's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on JAKKS Pacific's historical news coverage. JAKKS Pacific's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 16.57 and 21.39, respectively. We have considered JAKKS Pacific's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
JAKKS Pacific is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of JAKKS Pacific is based on 3 months time horizon.
JAKKS Pacific Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as JAKKS Pacific is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading JAKKS Pacific backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with JAKKS Pacific, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 2.41 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
19.00 | 18.98 | 0.11 |
|
JAKKS Pacific Hype Timeline
JAKKS Pacific is currently traded for 19.00. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. JAKKS is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 18.98. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.11%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.06%. The volatility of related hype on JAKKS Pacific is about 3394.37%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 19.00. About 21.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.84. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. JAKKS Pacific has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.37. The entity last dividend was issued on the 28th of November 2025. The firm had 1:10 split on the 10th of July 2020. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of JAKKS Pacific to cross-verify your projections.JAKKS Pacific Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to JAKKS Pacific's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict JAKKS Pacific's future price movements. Getting to know how JAKKS Pacific's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how JAKKS Pacific may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FNKO | Funko Inc | (0.01) | 8 per month | 2.90 | 0.13 | 10.69 | (5.35) | 19.90 | |
| HBB | Hamilton Beach Brands | (0.30) | 6 per month | 1.96 | 0.09 | 5.68 | (3.74) | 17.33 | |
| ESCA | Escalade Incorporated | (0.04) | 6 per month | 1.61 | 0.11 | 4.25 | (2.87) | 12.43 | |
| GDHG | Golden Heaven Group | 0.26 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 7.61 | (10.54) | 34.10 | |
| DOGZ | Dogness International Corp | (0.11) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 4.47 | (5.19) | 21.16 | |
| FLXS | Flexsteel Industries | (0.07) | 3 per month | 2.41 | 0 | 5.22 | (3.18) | 9.20 | |
| JILL | JJill Inc | (0.20) | 7 per month | 3.17 | 0.01 | 5.40 | (4.01) | 19.92 | |
| CRMT | Americas Car Mart | 0.06 | 13 per month | 3.47 | 0.01 | 7.71 | (5.55) | 18.39 | |
| DBI | Designer Brands | (0.07) | 15 per month | 3.26 | 0.16 | 10.60 | (6.18) | 57.50 | |
| INSE | Inspired Entertainment | 1.19 | 8 per month | 2.68 | 0.05 | 3.97 | (4.58) | 18.56 |
Other Forecasting Options for JAKKS Pacific
For every potential investor in JAKKS, whether a beginner or expert, JAKKS Pacific's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. JAKKS Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in JAKKS. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying JAKKS Pacific's price trends.JAKKS Pacific Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with JAKKS Pacific stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of JAKKS Pacific could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing JAKKS Pacific by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
JAKKS Pacific Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how JAKKS Pacific stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading JAKKS Pacific shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying JAKKS Pacific stock market strength indicators, traders can identify JAKKS Pacific entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
JAKKS Pacific Risk Indicators
The analysis of JAKKS Pacific's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in JAKKS Pacific's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting jakks stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.75 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.37 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.43 | |||
| Variance | 5.93 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.79 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.6 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.88) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for JAKKS Pacific
The number of cover stories for JAKKS Pacific depends on current market conditions and JAKKS Pacific's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that JAKKS Pacific is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about JAKKS Pacific's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
JAKKS Pacific Short Properties
JAKKS Pacific's future price predictability will typically decrease when JAKKS Pacific's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of JAKKS Pacific often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential JAKKS Pacific's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. JAKKS Pacific's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 11.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 69.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of JAKKS Pacific to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy JAKKS Stock please use our How to buy in JAKKS Stock guide.You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.
Is Leisure Products space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of JAKKS Pacific. If investors know JAKKS will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about JAKKS Pacific listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.62) | Dividend Share 0.75 | Earnings Share 0.47 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.34) |
The market value of JAKKS Pacific is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of JAKKS that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of JAKKS Pacific's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is JAKKS Pacific's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because JAKKS Pacific's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect JAKKS Pacific's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between JAKKS Pacific's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if JAKKS Pacific is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, JAKKS Pacific's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.