Jernimo Martins Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

JEM Stock  EUR 20.68  0.60  2.99%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Jernimo Martins SGPS on the next trading day is expected to be 20.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.56 and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.21. Jernimo Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Jernimo Martins' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 22nd of January 2026, The value of RSI of Jernimo Martins' share price is at 54. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Jernimo Martins, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 54

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Jernimo Martins' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Jernimo Martins and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Jernimo Martins' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Jernimo Martins SGPS, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Jernimo Martins hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Jernimo Martins SGPS from the perspective of Jernimo Martins response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Jernimo Martins SGPS on the next trading day is expected to be 20.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.56 and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.21.

Jernimo Martins after-hype prediction price

    
  EUR 20.68  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Jernimo Martins to cross-verify your projections.

Jernimo Martins Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Jernimo price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Jernimo using various technical indicators. When you analyze Jernimo charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Jernimo Martins price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Jernimo Martins Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 23rd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Jernimo Martins SGPS on the next trading day is expected to be 20.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.56, mean absolute percentage error of 0.42, and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.21.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Jernimo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Jernimo Martins' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Jernimo Martins Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Jernimo MartinsJernimo Martins Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Jernimo Martins Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Jernimo Martins' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Jernimo Martins' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.57 and 21.44, respectively. We have considered Jernimo Martins' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
20.68
20.01
Expected Value
21.44
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Jernimo Martins stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Jernimo Martins stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.2448
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.5608
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.027
SAESum of the absolute errors34.2088
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Jernimo Martins SGPS historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Jernimo Martins

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Jernimo Martins SGPS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
19.2420.6822.12
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
19.3720.8122.26
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
19.6020.3021.00
Details

Jernimo Martins After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Jernimo Martins at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Jernimo Martins or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Jernimo Martins, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Jernimo Martins Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Jernimo Martins' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Jernimo Martins' historical news coverage. Jernimo Martins' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 19.24 and 22.12, respectively. We have considered Jernimo Martins' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
20.68
20.68
After-hype Price
22.12
Upside
Jernimo Martins is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Jernimo Martins SGPS is based on 3 months time horizon.

Jernimo Martins Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Jernimo Martins is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Jernimo Martins backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Jernimo Martins, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.05 
1.44
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Uncertain
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
20.68
20.68
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Jernimo Martins Hype Timeline

Jernimo Martins SGPS is currently traded for 20.68on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Jernimo is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.05%. %. The volatility of related hype on Jernimo Martins is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 20.68. About 56.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company last dividend was issued on the 16th of May 2022. Jernimo Martins SGPS had 5:1 split on the 29th of May 2007. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be uncertain.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Jernimo Martins to cross-verify your projections.

Jernimo Martins Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Jernimo Martins' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Jernimo Martins' future price movements. Getting to know how Jernimo Martins' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Jernimo Martins may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Jernimo Martins

For every potential investor in Jernimo, whether a beginner or expert, Jernimo Martins' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Jernimo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Jernimo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Jernimo Martins' price trends.

Jernimo Martins Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Jernimo Martins stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Jernimo Martins could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Jernimo Martins by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Jernimo Martins Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Jernimo Martins stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Jernimo Martins shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Jernimo Martins stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Jernimo Martins SGPS entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Jernimo Martins Risk Indicators

The analysis of Jernimo Martins' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Jernimo Martins' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting jernimo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Jernimo Martins

The number of cover stories for Jernimo Martins depends on current market conditions and Jernimo Martins' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Jernimo Martins is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Jernimo Martins' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Other Information on Investing in Jernimo Stock

Jernimo Martins financial ratios help investors to determine whether Jernimo Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Jernimo with respect to the benefits of owning Jernimo Martins security.