J P Etf Forecast - Simple Regression
| JPLD Etf | 52.40 0.01 0.02% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of J P Morgan on the next trading day is expected to be 52.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.79. JPLD Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast J P stock prices and determine the direction of J P Morgan's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of J P's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength momentum indicator of J P's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the etf is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using J P hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of J P Morgan from the perspective of J P response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of J P Morgan on the next trading day is expected to be 52.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.79. J P after-hype prediction price | USD 52.4 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of J P to cross-verify your projections. J P Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine JPLD price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for JPLD using various technical indicators. When you analyze JPLD charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
J P Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of J P Morgan on the next trading day is expected to be 52.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.79.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict JPLD Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that J P's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
J P Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest J P | J P Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
J P Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting J P's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. J P's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 52.37 and 52.50, respectively. We have considered J P's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of J P etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent J P etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.3127 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0289 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 6.0E-4 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.7927 |
Predictive Modules for J P
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as J P Morgan. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.J P After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of J P at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in J P or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of J P, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
J P Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting J P's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on J P's historical news coverage. J P's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 52.33 and 52.47, respectively. We have considered J P's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
J P is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of J P Morgan is based on 3 months time horizon.
J P Etf Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as J P is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading J P backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with J P, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 5 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
52.40 | 52.40 | 0.00 |
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J P Hype Timeline
J P Morgan is currently traded for 52.40. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. JPLD is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on J P is about 13.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 52.41. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of J P to cross-verify your projections.J P Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to J P's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict J P's future price movements. Getting to know how J P's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how J P may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EVTR | Morgan Stanley ETF | (0.22) | 12 per month | 0.13 | (0.58) | 0.25 | (0.25) | 0.66 | |
| CGBL | Capital Group Core | 0.08 | 4 per month | 0.46 | (0.05) | 0.86 | (0.89) | 2.29 | |
| FLRN | SPDR Bloomberg Investment | 0.01 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (2.50) | 0.07 | (0.03) | 0.13 | |
| IWX | iShares Russell Top | 0.18 | 5 per month | 0.41 | 0.04 | 1.22 | (0.96) | 2.70 | |
| IYH | iShares Healthcare ETF | 1.17 | 6 per month | 0.42 | 0.06 | 2.09 | (1.11) | 3.60 | |
| EWU | iShares MSCI United | (0.12) | 10 per month | 0.48 | 0.05 | 1.33 | (1.06) | 2.97 | |
| SBIL | Simplify Exchange Traded | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (6.06) | 0.04 | (0.01) | 0.07 | |
| XME | SPDR SP Metals | 1.86 | 4 per month | 2.13 | 0.13 | 3.57 | (4.11) | 11.45 | |
| QTEC | First Trust NASDAQ 100 Technology | 2.39 | 2 per month | 1.46 | (0.03) | 2.05 | (2.53) | 5.72 | |
| LRGF | iShares Equity Factor | (0.23) | 2 per month | 0.86 | (0.1) | 1.08 | (1.21) | 3.41 |
Other Forecasting Options for J P
For every potential investor in JPLD, whether a beginner or expert, J P's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. JPLD Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in JPLD. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying J P's price trends.J P Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with J P etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of J P could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing J P by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
J P Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how J P etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading J P shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying J P etf market strength indicators, traders can identify J P Morgan entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 724.4 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.17) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 52.4 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 52.4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.01) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.01) |
J P Risk Indicators
The analysis of J P's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in J P's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting jpld etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.0496 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.0635 | |||
| Variance | 0.004 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0051 | |||
| Semi Variance | (0.01) | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.06) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for J P
The number of cover stories for J P depends on current market conditions and J P's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that J P is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about J P's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of J P to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.
The market value of J P Morgan is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of JPLD that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of J P's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is J P's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because J P's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect J P's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between J P's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if J P is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, J P's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.