AeroVironment Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| JPX Stock | EUR 211.10 10.60 4.78% |
AeroVironment Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of AeroVironment's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 25th of February 2026, the relative strength indicator of AeroVironment's share price is approaching 37. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling AeroVironment, making its price go up or down. Momentum 37
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.757 | Wall Street Target Price 126.8 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 1.507 |
Using AeroVironment hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of AeroVironment from the perspective of AeroVironment response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AeroVironment on the next trading day is expected to be 211.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 9.57 and the sum of the absolute errors of 574.50. AeroVironment after-hype prediction price | EUR 210.7 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
AeroVironment |
AeroVironment Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine AeroVironment price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AeroVironment using various technical indicators. When you analyze AeroVironment charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
AeroVironment Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AeroVironment on the next trading day is expected to be 211.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 9.57, mean absolute percentage error of 187.85, and the sum of the absolute errors of 574.50.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AeroVironment Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AeroVironment's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
AeroVironment Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest AeroVironment | AeroVironment Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
AeroVironment Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting AeroVironment's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AeroVironment's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 205.65 and 216.55, respectively. We have considered AeroVironment's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AeroVironment stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AeroVironment stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.5083 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.4983 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 9.575 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0397 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 574.5 |
Predictive Modules for AeroVironment
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AeroVironment. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.AeroVironment After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of AeroVironment at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AeroVironment or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of AeroVironment, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
AeroVironment Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting AeroVironment's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on AeroVironment's historical news coverage. AeroVironment's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 205.25 and 216.15, respectively. We have considered AeroVironment's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
AeroVironment is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of AeroVironment is based on 3 months time horizon.
AeroVironment Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as AeroVironment is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AeroVironment backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AeroVironment, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 5.45 | 0.40 | 0.51 | 11 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
211.10 | 210.70 | 0.19 |
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AeroVironment Hype Timeline
AeroVironment is currently traded for 211.10on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.4, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.51. AeroVironment is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 210.7. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 109.0%. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -0.19%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.08%. The volatility of related hype on AeroVironment is about 85.09%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 211.61. About 92.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of AeroVironment was currently reported as 75.37. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.71. AeroVironment recorded a loss per share of 1.04. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AeroVironment to cross-verify your projections.AeroVironment Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to AeroVironment's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AeroVironment's future price movements. Getting to know how AeroVironment's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AeroVironment may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PQ9 | BANK MANDIRI | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.02 | 4.35 | 0.00 | 24.58 | |
| PQ9 | PT Bank Mandiri | 0.04 | 1 per month | 5.70 | 0.07 | 18.18 | (14.29) | 40.26 | |
| PQ9 | BANK MANDIRI | 0.01 | 3 per month | 2.89 | 0.08 | 5.00 | (4.76) | 26.79 | |
| PQ9 | BANK MANDIRI | 0.00 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8.89 | |
| BKE1 | BK NEGARA INDO | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 29.17 | |
| BKE1 | PT Bank Negara | 0.00 | 3 per month | 3.40 | 0.06 | 5.00 | (4.76) | 37.50 | |
| BKE1 | BK NEGARA INDO | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.76 | (4.55) | 9.76 | |
| SSUN | Samsung Electronics Co | 24.00 | 7 per month | 2.31 | 0.24 | 6.04 | (4.93) | 14.94 | |
| SSU | Samsung Electronics Co | 110.00 | 4 per month | 2.26 | 0.25 | 7.66 | (4.89) | 15.03 | |
| SSUN | Samsung Electronics Co | (70.00) | 4 per month | 1.95 | 0.29 | 6.10 | (4.11) | 13.83 |
Other Forecasting Options for AeroVironment
For every potential investor in AeroVironment, whether a beginner or expert, AeroVironment's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AeroVironment Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AeroVironment. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AeroVironment's price trends.AeroVironment Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with AeroVironment stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of AeroVironment could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AeroVironment by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
AeroVironment Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how AeroVironment stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading AeroVironment shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying AeroVironment stock market strength indicators, traders can identify AeroVironment entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0525 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.91) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.95 | |||
| Day Median Price | 216.95 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 215.0 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 11.7 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (11.15) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (10.60) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 37.87 |
AeroVironment Risk Indicators
The analysis of AeroVironment's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AeroVironment's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aerovironment stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.76 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.2 | |||
| Variance | 27.06 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for AeroVironment
The number of cover stories for AeroVironment depends on current market conditions and AeroVironment's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that AeroVironment is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about AeroVironment's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AeroVironment to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in AeroVironment Stock please use our How to Invest in AeroVironment guide.You can also try the Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.