Ictsi Jasa Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

KARW Stock  IDR 5,400  600.00  10.00%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Ictsi Jasa Prima on the next trading day is expected to be 5,748 with a mean absolute deviation of 336.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20,528. Ictsi Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Ictsi Jasa polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Ictsi Jasa Prima as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Ictsi Jasa Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Ictsi Jasa Prima on the next trading day is expected to be 5,748 with a mean absolute deviation of 336.52, mean absolute percentage error of 183,478, and the sum of the absolute errors of 20,528.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ictsi Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ictsi Jasa's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Ictsi Jasa Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Ictsi JasaIctsi Jasa Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Ictsi Jasa Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Ictsi Jasa's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ictsi Jasa's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5,740 and 5,757, respectively. We have considered Ictsi Jasa's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
5,400
5,748
Expected Value
5,757
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ictsi Jasa stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ictsi Jasa stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria130.2303
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation336.5229
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.1043
SAESum of the absolute errors20527.8956
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Ictsi Jasa historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Ictsi Jasa

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ictsi Jasa Prima. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
5,3925,4005,408
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
4,0764,0845,940
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
3,2965,1597,021
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Ictsi Jasa

For every potential investor in Ictsi, whether a beginner or expert, Ictsi Jasa's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ictsi Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ictsi. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ictsi Jasa's price trends.

Ictsi Jasa Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ictsi Jasa stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ictsi Jasa could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ictsi Jasa by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Ictsi Jasa Prima Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Ictsi Jasa's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Ictsi Jasa's current price.

Ictsi Jasa Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ictsi Jasa stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ictsi Jasa shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ictsi Jasa stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ictsi Jasa Prima entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Ictsi Jasa Risk Indicators

The analysis of Ictsi Jasa's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ictsi Jasa's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ictsi stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Ictsi Stock

Ictsi Jasa financial ratios help investors to determine whether Ictsi Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Ictsi with respect to the benefits of owning Ictsi Jasa security.